COMMENTARY | Things are about to get very interesting for NBA fans and fantasy freaks everywhere. Over the next couple weeks, there is going to be a free agent frenzy like we have never seen before. And there definitely is some real talent out there to be had, though the most notable names on the market will not hit the free market till 2012, when the likes of Chris Paul, Kevin Love, Deron Williams, and of course Dwight Howard all expire.
That said, we’re going to take a look at some possible new homes for the top ten free agents in the 2011 class. It’s headed by two great big men, but is deep with fantasy impact players, which we’ll continue to look at in our second-tier free agent article next.
1. Nene Hilario, C, Denver
Nene seems to have peaked as a player now, but it’s a pretty nice peak. He shot over 60 percent from the floor last season for the second time in three years, while posting 14.6 points per game, 7.8 rebounds per game, and over a steal and block per game. He’s under two turnovers per game and also shoots a respectable 72.3 percent from the line, making him a good rotisserie player.
Where could Nene go?
One possible destination is New York. Seeing Nene alongside Amar’e Stoudemire and Carmelo Anthony would give the Knicks a strong, physical, and very good front line. New York will be in the hunt for a center and though I think the best bet for them would be DeAndre Jordan, Nene would probably be targeted first for his veteran leadership and more proven nature.
Seeing Nene in Miami is also a possibility. The Heat are desperate for a center and Nene is sure to fill that void nicely if they can swing a contract for him in the new CBA. The upgrade from Joel Anthony to Nene would make Miami the true favorite for a 2012 title.
2. David West, PF, NOH
David West was a lot better two seasons ago. In 08-09, he was an All-Star, putting up 21.0 points per game and 8.5 boards per contest, while shooting 47 percent from the floor and 88 percent from the line. While his field goal percentage climbed over 50 percent in the last two seasons, his scoring fell both years, and he finished with an average of 18.9 points per game last season.
It’s hard to gauge a player like West’s loyalty to a team that he has played for his entire career thus far.
Chris Paul is likely on his way out, which would leave West on what would be a very poor basketball team, so he may be looking to jump ship too.
West might like the idea of being an alpha dog, though. He has shown a propensity towards wanting to hoist a lot of shots, and playing for the Charlotte Bobcats would afford him that possibility. I think the Bobcats fans and coaches are growing very weary of the overweight and undermotivated Boris Diaw and they have the money to spend to bring in a big name like West. West and rookie Kemba Walker could potentially form a great pick ‘n’ roll tandem, and possibly change the makeup of the Bobcats team in a way that once depended on the perimeter play of the now departed Stephen Jackson. West would also have a lot of fun pairing with Bismack Biyumbo, who himself would cover many of West’s defensive blunders. The Bobcats have only $47M on the payroll for nine guaranteed players. Adding West is a very real possibility for them.
Indiana will also most certainly make a push for West. They started Tyler Hansbrough and Josh McRoberts there last season, both of whom play below replacement value average as players. Getting David West would give them a great second option behind Danny Granger and would make them fringe contenders in the East. Well, that may be a stretch, but West would certainly enable the Pacers to win 45 to 50 games and possibly land home-court advantage in the first round. Indiana has only $36M committed in salaries and has the money to spend to bring in David West, and he would perfectly fill a hole. I will not be surprised to see it happen.
3. Caron Butler, SF, DAL
Caron Butler is just a season away from being a top 25 player with the Washington Wizards. Yes, I realize he is older and coming off an injury, but he is still capable of posting huge numbers, and I firmly believe that. I also believe he will return to Dallas. The Mavericks were very interested in obtaining him and I feel Mark Cuban is committed to keeping him. I think Butler will put up very respectable and very efficient numbers in a full season with the Mavs. He won’t see the kind of usage he did in Washington, but should be able to be a key contributor along with Dirk Nowitzki and Jason Terry. Butler gives them the second/third option necessary to put points up on the board if Dirk or Terry need a rest.
4. Marc Gasol, C, Memphis
Gasol, the younger brother of perennial All-Star Pau, has proven to be a very legitimate player ijn his own right. When the Lakers dealt the lowly regarded Marc for his brother in a lopsided and awkward trade that many questioned the very validity of, few thought Marc would pan out to be much of anything, maybe a solid role player. While calling him a star may be a stretch, he did average a very solid 11.7 points per game and 7.0 rebounds per night. He’s not a good shot blocker, but he does just about everything else very well. I don’t think he’ll ever come close to resembling his brother, but that may be asking a bit much.
Ideally, and most probably, I think Gasol returns to Memphis. They made an incredible run in the playoffs and he seems to be happy playing alongside Zach Randolph. There are obviously a number of teams that could benefit from his services, and one team that will certainly be in line is the Houston Rockets.
Kevin McHale undoubtedly wants the job of nurturing a top big man and he could help Gasol improve his footwork and take the leap into being a possibly premier big man. Houston will be working hard to land either Gasol or Nene.
5. DeAndre Jordan, C, LAC
Last season was a breakout season for the 6-11 Texas A&M product. Though only 23 years old, Jordan is on the verge of becoming a very good big man. Last season, in limited minutes (25 per game), Jordan posted 7.1 ppg, 7.2 rpg, and 1.8 bpg. Per-36 minutes, those averages are a double double with over two blocks per game.
Jordan is sure to attract a lot of attention. In a three-game stretch against Utah, Atlanta, and Denver, he averaged 12.6 rebounds per game and 6.3 blocks. He posted a total of nine double doubles, but that is a number that could easily quadruple with ample playing time. Much like Gasol, I would prefer to see DeAndre Jordan stay with his current team. He and Blake Griffin have the potential to be one of the most athletic inside duos in the game and Jordan is the answer for the Clippers, not the oft-injured Chris Kaman.
The Heat as I mentioned are hunting for a center and Jordan would love the opportunity to learn alongside LeBron James and Dwyane Wade while manning the post with the versatile Chris Bosh. He would also help tremendously defensively and would actually be an upgrade from the already solid defensively Joel Anthony, who could return to his rightful role as a backup center. I could see Jordan putting up 13 to 15 a game if in the Heat’s offense, as he would be the benefit of so many backdoor cuts and easy looks resulting from all the double teaming of Miami’s Big 3. He would have a feast on the interior and would get a lot of easy put backs too. It would be a serious boon for fantasy owners of Jordan’s to see him land in Miami.
6. Jeff Green, SF/PF, BOS
Jeff Green was dealt in one of the most perplexing deadline deals I had seen in a long time. I do think he will return to Boston. Danny Ainge is very committed to Green, who posted only 9.8 points per game last year as a Celtic. His career average is over four points per game higher than that stretch of games, and prior to the trade he was posting a solid year in Oklahoma City, putting up 15.2 points per game, 5.6 rebounds per game, while also hitting 1.1 3s per night.
It could be a year of transition for the Celtics. The shorter year means Kevin Garnett will be fresher, though, and Pierce doesn’t need to be fresh to play well. That means less minutes for Green.
What does this mean? While Green certainly may feel flattered to be favored enough by Ainge to be the target of a Kendrick Perkins trade, it doesn’t mean he is forced to stay there. The Los Angeles Clippers have been using stopgap below replacement value players at small forward for the last few seasons and could make great use of Green. As mentioned, if Jordan returned to the Clippers, they could have a front line of Jeff Green / Blake Griffin / DeAndre Jordan. That kind of versatility and athleticism would make the Clippers a very dangerous team down low, and that’s not even to mention the effect it would have on Eric Gordon’s already dangerous offensive attack. With the Clippers having a payroll of a mere $44M, this is a very real possibility, as Green probably won’t command more than $8 or $9M per year, based on his production levels alone.
7. Wilson Chandler, SF, DEN
Last season, after leaving an offense tailor made for him in New York, Chandler found himself in new surroundings in Denver, and also found himself playing four minutes less per game, while he hit only 41.9 percent from the floor, compared to the 46.1 percent he was shooting in New York. His scoring average dropped to 12.5 a game and he just didn’t look all that happy. I have to believe he’s going to search for a new home this off season and there are a number of teams that could be in line for who at one point last season was looking like a poor man’s Shawn Marion.
New Jersey may look to add Chandler. They were more than mildly disappointed with the money they spent on Travis Outlaw, and might even ax him with the amnesty clause. Chandler would be a great small forward to add some athleticism (not that Outlaw isn’t athletic, he just isn’t good) to the Nets front line. With Kris Humprhies also a free agent, the Nets don’t really have a good outlook of what their front line is going to look like at this point, but if they return Humphries and keep Brook Lopez in the middle, Chandler could post numbers far closer to his New York levels than his Denver levels. Right now, Chandler is trapped in China, bound by contract.
8. Jamal Crawford, G, ATL
Jamal Crawford is getting older now. He’s 31 and last year wasn’t his best year, and he didn’t do well in the series against the Bulls, as he scored eight points or less in three of the six games in the series. That aside, he is still a great fantasy player, particularly in head to head if you want to take advantage of his 3-point shooting and scoring.
There will be a lot of teams looking to add Crawford. One place I think he would prosper in is Chicago. The Bulls were not happy with the play of Keith Bogans and Ronnie Brewer last season, and will be looking at Crawford as a possibility to return the franchise he spent his first four seasons in the league with. Crawford and Rose would make for a dynamic backcourt and I could easily see Crawford’s production returning to the level it was in 09-10.
9. Aaron Brooks, PG, PHX
I was pretty shocked when the Suns traded Goran Dragic for Aaron Brooks. I thought they were very committed to Dragic, who was really beginning to come into his own and look like a very viable replacement for the aging Steve Nash. That’s no knock against Brooks, though, who I have often compared to being a very poor man’s Allen Iverson. Both are underrated distributors capable of exploding to the hoop and elevating off the floor very well for players their size.
Brooks is undersized but seems to make up for it with his tenacity. He had an injury plagued 2010-11 campaign, but has a career average of 12.5 points per game and posted 19.6 points per game in 09-10, when he played 35.6 minutes per game. With Nash possibly on the way out as Phoenix rebuilds around Brooks, Gortat, and others, Brooks could be a star after the trade deadline if the Suns clear the shelves and start over.
It is worthy of note that as of right now, as Adrian Wojnarowski brought to our attention, Brooks is trapped in China, and the Chinese teams don’t seem ready to give this one up. It could get very ugly and we’ll see what happens with he and Chandler. It’s hard to imagine NBA players just sticking to their signature and honoring their contracts with the Chinese teams, and there will undoubtedly be plenty of legal jargon involved in this one.
10. Jason Richardson, SG, ORL
When the Magic obtained Jason Richardson last season in an early-season swap with the Suns, I was very excited at the prospect of the Magic having a player who was capable of jaw-dropping, show-stopping dunks. I was quite disappointed when I found out Richardson was no longer that player. Dunks notwithstanding, he is still a very viable contributor for fantasy purposes. He’ll be a cheap option in drafts this season for his 3-point abilities and he is always solid defensively and will give you over a steal per game. Prior to being dealt to the Magic last season, he was shooting 41.9 percent from the arc for the Suns and he has posted a career three point percentage of 37.3 percent. I don’t think he’ll return to the days of scoring over 18 a game, but he should be very valuable to the right team.
Chicago, as I already mentioned, is in the hunt for a shooting guard, and Jason Richardson tweeted that he was interested in going there. In fact, he doesn’t seem to have his heart in Orlando. I think when Richardson arrived he knew it was a temporary situation since he was an expiring contract and Otis Smith had already committed a large contract to J.J. Redick. Seeing Richardson land in a Bulls uniform would be a pretty ideal situation, as I think he would get the open 3s necessary to shoot a high percentage and be worth a late pick in fantasy drafts.