COMMENTARY | According to USA Today, a new Gallup poll taken in a select number of swing states contains more bad news for President Obama. He trails both Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich by five and three percentage points respectively.
Nationwide Obama leads both Republicans, Romney by one point, Gingrich by six. Unfortunately for the president, American presidential elections are not nationwide. They are 51 separate contests for each of the 50 states plus the District of Columbia.
The states polled are Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin. Obama carried these states by an average of eight points during the 2008 election.
The enthusiasm level of Republican voters has soared while that of Democrats has collapsed, according to the poll. Obama cannot count on his core constituencies to turn out for him in 2012 at the levels they did in 2008. His opponents, on the other hand, can hardly wait to get to the polls.
Obama, therefore, is going have to spend a lot of time whipping up his base. This partly explains the class warfare rhetoric that he has been employing in recent speeches. That kind of rhetoric is off-putting to conservatives and independents, but is red meat to liberals. Obama must energize his base by not so much touting his own record, but by warning them of the perils of his losing the White House.
The other takeaway from the Gallup poll is that Obama is beaten by both Romney and Gingrich in the swing states. One of the arguments developing in the Republican nomination race revolves around the question of which of the front-runners is more electable. Romney is claiming that he is, because he is more moderate and has conducted his life with more propriety,
However, the poll does not show any significant difference between Romney and Gingrich in the swing states. Both men as of now beat Obama in every one of them. That suggests that the Republican contest will revolve around the question of which man will be the better president. Each man has arguments for and against that question. How the voters answer will determine the shape of the upcoming election.
Source: Resurgent Republicans close gap in key states, Susan Page, USA Today, Dec 12, 2011