COMMENTARY | What effect does campaign manager Kent Sorenson’s defection from Michele Bachmann to rival Ron Paul have on the Jan. 3 Iowa caucus race?
Bachmann never had a snowball’s chance in the hot place. She did take the Ames straw poll, (trucking in celebrities and plenty of food to do so). But, much like Newt Gingrich, Bachmann’s fortunes have been fading fast.
In an article written on Dec. 20, 2011, [after covering a Newt Gingrich rally in Davenport, IA], I wrote:
“Gingrich, put a brave face in the wake of the release of a new (Dec. 19) Huffington Post survey of 597 caucus-goers that shows Ron Paul at 23 percent, Mitt Romney at 20 percent and Newt sinking to 14 percent saying, ‘President Ronald Reagan was 30 points behind in the polls at this same time in his presidential run.’ That sounds about right, and is what I predicted over a week ago: a Ron Paul surge. Let’s face it: Bachmann and Santorum are toast. Perry has done himself in with his “oops” moments. Cain was not able. Romney may take the nomination, nationally, but Iowans are peeved that he didn’t come here and court them…”
National media are now reporting that Romney will play a few last-minute reindeer games in the land of corn and evangelicals to assuage that peevish feeling of neglect rooted in Mitt’s New Hampshire strategy. But Romney was always destined for one of the golden tickets. It was just a question of whether he’d win, place, or show.
The question is whether, as with McCain’s loss to Mike Huckabee in the election of 2008 (which didn’t garner Huckabee the national nomination) Romney’s last-minute efforts will win him gold, or whether Ron Paul will pull off a plausible upset. And is that dark horse coming up on the rail Santorum?
“If Iowa could give their seal of approval to Huckabee in 2008, despite the fact that he didn’t win the party’s nomination, there is nothing to stop them from anointing Ron Paul this time. Yes, he’s ancient. Yes, he’s flakey. But he’s likeable and the young support him. He won’t win the national nomination, but anybody but Newt!”
Alexander Burns on “Politico” (Dec. 28, 2011) and the Daily Kos as well quote Kent Sorensen, the Indianola, Iowa, Republican who pulled out a squeaky victory himself in his 2011 Senate race (50.4 percent to 49.5 percent). This father of six just may have given Ron Paul the win, appearing at a Ron Paul rally of veterans in Des Moines on December 28, 2011 to abandon ship.
Saying, “The decision I am making today is one of the most difficult I have made in my life. But, given what’s at stake for our country, I have decided I must take this action. Belatedly, Bachmann’s former campaign manager noticed, “… there’s a clear top tier in the race for the Republican nomination for president, both here in Iowa and nationally. Ron Paul is easily the most conservative of the group.”
Let the games begin!