When Arian Foster burst onto the NFL Fantasy Football scene last year with a 231-yard, three touchdown performance in a 34-24 victory against the Indianapolis Colts, it was a sign of good things to come for owners.
That 41-point day (standard Fantasy points) was just the beginning. Foster went on to lead the league in rushing with 1,616 yards, adding 604 yards in receiving and scoring a league-high 18 TDs (16 rushing and two receiving).Those statistics propelled Foster into one of the top three running back picks (on average) in 2011 Fantasy drafts.
But Foster’s owners are holding their breath that the 2011 pre-season isn’t an omen of things to come for this year. It’s not how Foster looked in limited action in the pre-season (he averaged 6.5 yards per carry and had a pair of scores). It’s the fact that he tweaked his hamstring not once, but twice in the pre-season, leaving him as a game-time decision for the season-opener.
The irony, of course, is that the Texans’ season-opener comes against the Colts once again. Foster, who gashed Indianapolis for 333 yards and four TDs in two 2010 meetings, would love nothing more than to line up against the Colts’ less-than-stellar run defense.
But is it the wise thing to do? Thanks to Foster’s now-infamous Tweet of pictures of his balky hamstring, opposing teams and the general public know that Foster suffered a slight tear in his hamstring. Varying opinions have been shared on national TV of the extent of that injury, but a safe estimate is that it takes 2-4 weeks to fully recover from such a setback.
That has led to a Texas-sized dilemma for Houston coaches and Fantasy owners alike. Thanks to Peyton Manning’s ongoing neck problems, which led to another surgery this week, and will likely sideline him for a minimum of 2-3 months, the Texans have a window of opportunity to compete for the AFC South division title.
All the more reason to rush Foster back too quickly. A head-to-head victory against Indianapolis would be key in the Texans’ quest for the division. But is it worth it? Hamstring injuries are notorious for becoming chronic when players rush back too soon. Instead of waiting an extra week or two for the injury to properly heal, players, motivated by contracts and a competitive drive, often run the risk of prolonging the injury.
Let’s say Foster doesn’t sit and goes off against the Colts once again, but comes up gimpy late in the fourth quarter. Now Fantasy owners will be left holding the bag for the next month.
So what is a Fantasy owner to do? Obviously, if Foster is in the line-up, you ride with him as long as you possibly can. He’s certainly shown that he is worth the risk. But you better add Derrick Ward or Ben Tate as a hand-cuff in case the worst happens. Ward is currently listed ahead of Tate as the back-up to Foster, but the guess here is that could change with one good performance by Tate.
Fantasy league rules vary on when line-ups are locked, but you need to pay close attention to the pre-game injury reports in case the Texans do the prudent thing and decide that it’s not worth the risk to play Foster, even if it is against the King of the Hill in their division. The guess here is that the Texans don’t gamble on their season and Foster sits. He hasn’t practiced all week, and it’s one thing to look good running around on the sidelines and it’s another thing to be game-ready.
Fantasy owners, beware. Have Plan B ready, not just for Sunday, but for the rest of the season. Foster could ride you once again to your league title, or he could have you wringing your hands the rest of the season.