It seems impossible to imagine a men’s singles Grand Slam tournament finals without Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic or Andy Murray. The four players have dominated men’s tennis for years–and took at least three of the top four finishes in every Grand Slam tournament so far this year.
However, Djokovic bowed out of the Western & Southern Open finals complaining of shoulder pain. Andy Murray cited having a sore arm after his Cincinnati Masters victory over Djokovic on Sunday. Nadal is having a less-than-Nadal-like summer since winning the French Open in June. And Federer is winless in his last 11 tournaments–his longest streak without a win since 2001.
With many of the top-tier players seemingly worn out and fatigued, one has to wonder if the 2011 U.S. Open won’t feature a breakout performance from a second group hungry for a spot at the top.
Here are the top five candidates most likely to have a breakout performance at the 2011 U.S. Open:
5. Ernests Gulbis–Ranked No. 55
After putting in a poor performance at this year’s Wimbledon, the young Latvian player has finished the summer strong. He won his second ATP title at the Farmer’s Classic–defeating Juan Martin Del Potro (No. 18) in the quarterfinals, Alex Bogomolov, Jr. (No. 45) in the semifinals, and Mardy Fish (No. 8) in the finals. And he’s continued to play incredibly well on hard courts–ending tied for fifth place in the 2011 U.S. Open Series this summer. He’s a long shot for winning the U.S. Open, but he should at least put in a performance rivaling his 2007 U.S. Open appearance when he made it to the fourth round.
4. Gael Monfils–Ranked No. 7
Gael Monfils lost to Djokovic in the quarterfinals at the 2010 U.S. Open. He defeated David Ferrer before losing to Roger Federer in the quarterfinals of the 2011 French Open. And he’s put in a superb performance this summer on the hard courts–finishing in fourth place in the 2011 U.S. Open Series this summer. Monfils lost to Djokovic in the quarterfinals at this year’s Rogers Cup in Montreal in early August and again in the quarterfinals of the Western & Southern Open two weeks later. However, Monfils performance against Djokovic has improved–even taking the first set 6-3 the last time around.
3. Juan Martin del Potro–Ranked No. 18
It is hard to call the 2009 U.S. Open champion an underdog, especially since he defeated Nadal in straight sets and five-time defending champion Roger Federer to win it. However, a persistent wrist injury and other injuries have plagued much of del Potro’s play since. He won the Estoril Open earlier this year, defeating No. 1 seed Robin Soderling on clay. He then reached the round of 16 at this year’s Wimbledon before losing to Nadal. But much of his play this summer has included mediocre and uninspiring performances. There is little reason to believe the Argentine will put in a repeat performance and win the 2011 U.S. Open. Other than historical precedence.
2. Tomas Berdych–Ranked No. 9
The Czech player has consistently reached the semifinals and quarterfinals in tournaments, including losing to Robin Soderling in the semifinals of the 2010 French Open and losing to Rafael Nadal in the finals of 2010 Wimbledon. Berdych has also put in a good performance this summer on hard courts. He placed seventh in the U.S. Open Series, and he stunned Roger Federer in the quarterfinals of the Western & Southern Open in August before bowing out to Djokovic due to shoulder pain. If he’s healthy, Berdych should have a chance.
1. Mardy Fish–Ranked No. 8
Mardy Fish comes into the U.S. Open as the highest ranked American player. He overtook Andy Roddick in the ratings after reaching the semifinals in the 2011 Delray Beach International Tennis Championships, the 2011 Regions Morgan Keegan Championships, and the 2011 Sony Erickson Open earlier this year. In the summer, he continued to put in some of the best performances of his career–reaching the quarterfinals of the Wimbledon for the first time and playing in the finals of both the 2011 Farmers Classic and the 2011 Rogers Cup.
To put it simply, Fish is currently en fuego. He also seems ready to swim with the big boys. He bested Rafael Nadal in straight sets in the quarterfinals of the recent 2011 Western & Southern Open and put up a valiant effort in his loss to Andy Murray in the same tournament. As a side note, Fish was the runaway winner of the US Open Series–besting Djokovic by 60 points and Andy Murray by 130 points. Which means that Fish will be playing for the largest payout in U.S. Open history–a whopping $1.8 million plus a $1 million bonus for placing first in the U.S. Open Series.
Charles Manley is longtime tennis player, youth instructor, and fan. He has attended the US Open nearly every year since the early 1980s.
Sources:
http://www.us-open-tennis.org/odds.html
http://www.livetennisguide.com/2011/08/23/injury-concerns-for-rafael-nadal-novak-djokovic-in-us-open/
http://www.usopen.org/en_US/players/rankingsm.html