With the baseball season now over there is no better time to take a look at what some of the big fantasy stories are heading into the offseason. While most teams won’t be playing a game for months, in the front offices there is no offseason. Every team has decisions to make that will have an impact on there team as well as the fantasy world in 2012. Between what free agents to try and sign, trades to make, what prospects to add to the big league roster to start the year, who to cut ties with and so many other decisions that need to be made there is a lot to look forward to this offseason. Everything they do will affect everything you do come next fantasy baseball season.
The biggest thing every offseason is free agency. This is one of the weaker free agent classes in recent memory as there aren’t many top tier free agents this offseason but the one’s that are, are some of the biggest names in the game. Two of the games best hitting first basemen, and arguably the best overall player in the game, will be getting phone calls as soon the free agent market opens. Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder will likely get a lot of attention in the media as 2 of the biggest names looking for a new contract. Fielder even recently made a statement that this was probably his final year in Milwaukee making it clear he is looking for a long term, big money deal that Milwaukee likely can’t afford. Pujols tried to work out a new deal with St. Louis prior to the start of this season but after that didn’t work out he has kept quiet about what he wants in terms of a new contract. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Fielder in a new city to start next year but with Pujols I don’t think St. Louis can afford to let him go somewhere else and will do whatever they can to keep him wearing cardinal red for the rest of his career. The only other free agent that I would consider a top tier is Jose Reyes who should get attention from a lot of teams. New York has said they are interested in resigning him but have also said they will be looking to reduce payroll so it’s not clear if they will be able to offer what some other teams will for Reyes services next year. The market for a big name shortstop should be much bigger than first base. It wouldn’t be surprising to hear about teams like Boston, Philadelphia, Los Angeles (AL), Detroit, St. Louis, and several others making calls into Reyes’ agent to see what it’s going to take to put him at the top of their lineup to start 2012.
Now just because there are only 3 top tier free agents doesn’t mean they are the only fantasy relevant players hitting the market. Mid level stars like Aramis Ramirez, Carlos Beltran, Grady Sizemore and several others will all also be in talks for new deals. Ramirez previously said he wanted to stay in Chicago by publically saying he didn’t want to go anywhere at the trade deadline this year even though the playoffs were out of the picture but recently declined his portion of the mutual option on his contract for next year. Beltran moved from Queens to San Francisco (a pitchers park to….. yet another pitchers park) so it looks like he will hit the open market. It’s unclear where he may end up, a lot will depend on how many years he is looking for in a new contract. Cleveland is the only place Sizemore has played so far in his career and is very popular with the fans but his injury history has to make any team worry. Cleveland isn’t a big market team so they can’t throw a lot of money around and are forced to take chances but right now this doesn’t seem like one they are going to be willing to take. Other names that will be hitting the market include Michael Cuddyer, Carlos Pena, Jimmy Rollins, David Ortiz, Mark Buehrle, Roy Oswalt and C.J. Wilson.
While some veterans will be looking for new big deals there are others out there that are already making some serious cash that didn’t exactly produce like they were paid for in 2011. It’s time to make a decision, was it just an off year or has the coaster gone over the big hill and there is no where but down from here? Some names that used to be early round picks seem destined to go much later next year based on how they performed this season. One time topped ranked catcher Joe Mauer had an injury riddled 2011 that limited him to just 82 games. Even when in the game Mauer had his struggles, hitting only 3 home runs and 30 RBI. Is he done? It’s hard to say, he is only 28 but has had injury problems each of the last 2 seasons. When top catchers start to struggle they are generally moved to another position, usually first base. There is one problem there however; first base in Minnesota is occupied with our next struggling vet, Justin Morneau. Morneau never really came back from the concussion that ended his 2010 season after only 81 games. This long after the injury and the effects still linger have to make you worry a little if he can ever return to form. I’m routing for the guy but have my doubts. Another former top pick that appears to be able to see his best days in the rear view mirror is Alex Rodriguez. 2011 was the first year since 1997 that has failed to hit 30 home runs in a season (seriously 1997?…. wow). Knee, hip and finger problems limited his plate appearances. The injuries and shrinking rang at third base seem to have A-Rod destined for a DH role which isn’t necessarily a bad thing. If he can adapt to his role at DH, and ask Adam Dunn how big that IF really is, it can lead to more at bats and perhaps a glimpse of what he used to produce. If that IF becomes a yes I think A-Rod can easily hit 25 homers and put up 100 RBI in that powerful offense.
Each year there are a few rookies that make a significant impact in the fantasy world. Who will be next years Freddie Freeman, Mike Stanton and Craig Kimbrel? Everyone knows how they have produced so let’s take a look at some young stars that produced after only getting a small taste of the big leagues this year. Jesus Montero was a September call up in the Bronx and has produced hitting over .300 with a little pop in limited at bats. There appears to be no way he won’t make the team to start next season but most of his time on the field since being called up has come as a DH. If A-Rod needs more time off the field next year it’s going to be hard for Montero to get at bats that way. It’s yet to be seen how Montero can handle the toll of catching every day in the majors and if that physical strain will effect his hitting at all. His current season high for games caught is 105 in AAA in 2010. I wouldn’t be surprised if Brian Cashman takes a few calls with trade offers for Montero this season. Russell Martin had a solid season (another 2012 free agent) and the team seems happy with how he works with the pitching staff so bringing him back could be an option. It will be interesting to see Montero’s situation come spring training 2012. In the shallow talent pool that is the fantasy relevant short stop prospect Dee Gordon has jumped in. Hitting right around .300 with 20+ steals in under 60 games Gordon could be a cheap target for short next season. The only down side is his lack of power. That could come as he ages and puts on a little more weight. Seriously the guy weighs about 150 pounds, time to start downing a few more Dodger dogs. And if you need a big name prospect there aren’t many places better to go than Tampa Bay. Again they have brought up some serious talent with outfielder Desmond Jennings. There is no doubt he will be starting for Tampa come opening day 2012. Look for him to go 20/20 next year and possibly even 25/25. Think of Jennings as a slightly younger Matt Kemp. He can produce in every fantasy category. Some other top prospects that showed some skills in their time in the majors this year were Toronto’s Brett Lawrie (2B/3B), Los Angeles’ (AL) Mike Trout (OF), Kansas City’s Eric Hosmer (1B), Arizona’s Paul Goldschmidt (1B), Seattle’s Dustin Ackley (2B) and Cleveland’s Jason Kipnis (2B). Looks like second base may be the place to target some young talent next season.
All those guys have a decent amount of time in the show so far, there is other talent waiting for there chance at more than a cup of coffee in the big leagues. The biggest name in this pool is Washington outfield prospect Bryce Harper. This 18 year old was the first overall pick of the 2010 draft and ended this season in AA. He is the #1 rated prospect in all of baseball who is projected to be a 5 tool player that had 17 home runs and 26 steals over 109 minor league games this season. The team is taking it slow with him so there is no guarantee he will be on the team at the start of next season but he is definitely someone to keep your eye on. Desmond Jennings isn’t the only Tampa Bay prospect that could make a splash next year. Starting pitcher Matt Moore could find his way into the rotation after finishing up his 5th, and arguably most productive, season in the minors. After ending 2009 in high A ball Moore moved through both AA and AAA this year pitching to an overall record of 12-3. This includes an impressive 4-0 over 9 starts in AAA where he had an ERA of 1.37, a WHIP under 1 and a strikeout to walk ratio of over 4 to 1. In 52.2 innings in AAA he struck out 79 batters. He made his way into a game for Tampa 3 times this season (1 start) where he had 15 strike outs in 9.1 innings so it would seem that strikeout ability transferred well to the majors. Don’t be surprised to see him in the rotation in Tampa come next season. Another team known for their talent scouting, specifically pitching, is St. Louis. Dave Duncan always puts together a solid staff and their biggest pitching prospect right now (#13 overall prospect in the minors) is Shelby Miller. Miller has yet to see any time in the majors but has put up some impressive stats in the minors. He split 2011 between high A and AA making 25 starts pitching to a 2.77 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and striking out 11 batters per 9 innings. Only 20 years old and having never pitched higher than AA it’s still not clear if he will make the rotation next season but I don’t think it’s out of the question. Some other big prospects to keep an eye on for next season are Colorado’s Tim Wheeler (OF), Washington’s Brad Peacock (SP), Minnesota’s Kyle Gibson (SP) and several others. Some big prospects go well ahead of where they should be taken in fantasy drafts while others seem to fly under the radar and can make great late round pick ups or early season waiver claims.
One good tip when prepping for next season is to do your initial rankings for next season now. Yes a lot will change, players will change teams or retire but your opinions will never be fresher than they are right now. There isn’t going to be so much change during the offseason that the rankings you quickly put together now will be out dated. You have just tracked a full season of stats, injuries and formed opinions about who you like or don’t like. Why wait 4 months to put together rankings when you are bound to forget things. Store those post 2011 season rankings and when spring training roles around next year just make some tweaks based on those guys that retired, changed teams or haven’t come back from injury like anticipated. This will put you one step ahead of your competition and will likely even save you a little time as you won’t have to go back and research stats on guys because you have forgotten over the winter. With your rankings done it will free up some time to look a little further into those guys on new teams, prospects, and former stars that struggled this year. Put all this together with our free agent stats, prospect profiles and positional rankings and you will be ahead of your competition before the season even starts.