At 3-5, the Eagles season is over.
Oh, there will those who say, not so fast. If they go on a hot streak, they could sneak in, and maybe even win the NFC East.
Okay, first things first. The Eagles can just about forget about a wild card berth. The Lions, Falcons (or Saints, whoever doesn’t win the South), and Bears have the inside track to claim those 2 slots, and all of them sport 5-3 records or better with schedules that are fairly favorable. And even if they manage that, in front of them still stand the Bucs, let alone their own division rivals Giants and Cowboys. So, they would need to leap frog 5 of 7 teams to have a shot at a wildcard. And keep in mind, they have already lost to the Falcons and Bears.
So, realistically, their best shot is to win the division. And that is where it does get tricky. First, let’s address that the 2nd half schedule. 4 of those games are against the Patriots, Jets, Giants and Dallas. And in the other games, Miami and Seattle might be “easy”. But the Redskins are traditional rivals that match up well. And the upcoming matchup against the Cardinals is not necessarily easy, given the Cardinals poor record reflects a point differential of 4 points a game (translates: they have been in most games). The Eagles would really need to go 7-1 in the second half to go 10-6. And 2 losses, and they fall to 9-7, an unlikely record to take the NFC East crown.
Yes, the Giants have a tough 2nd half and could fade. But even at a .500 record the remainder of the season, they would finish at 10-6. Dallas has the softest 2nd half schedule, so could easily go to 10-6 themselves. And as stated, the Eagles need to leap frog both at this point as their best (and likely only shot at the playoffs).
Now, let’s say they manage to do just that. Not sure if I would hold out hope in the playoffs. Yes, they could get hot. Anything is possible. But I say it is not, and to me, a lot of this falls on the coaches. Specifically, I look at the defense. Juan Castillo leads the cast. First, let me ask the question how does an offensive line coach become the defensive coordinator overnight? Well . . . I think the results do speak to exactly.
The wide 9 concept was a disaster given the player personnel. The misuse of Nnamdi Asomugha was unforgiveable. After the first 2-3 weeks, I was even questioning whether or not I had him overrated (answer: he is not. But, if you put him in an exclusive slot coverage, and order him to play a man-zone, vs. tight man to man, you do don’t get the same production, do you?).
They have started to turn the corner. But the issue is, how long it is taking, and the fact that teams are going to adapt already. Between that, and the lack of depth on that defensive line . . . and well, they are a vulnerable team whose offense, built and delivered as a quick strike offense, will not give them breathing room.
So . . . back and around. Mark my words. The season is nigh over, and Andy Reid should start thinking about how to revamp for next year (hint, hint: focus on your coaching staff!).