Eagles-Falcons Preview: Grounded Birds

Andy Reid is famous for his game-planning and I managed to find out the Philadelphia Eagles’ game plan against the Atlanta Falcons for Sunday night.

Plan A is for Falcons running back Michael Turner to get hurt on his first carry and have to leave the game. Then Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan, wide receiver Roddy White, left tackle Sam Baker and cornerback Dunta Robinson will also get hurt during the game.

That game plan worked to perfection in the Eagles season opening victory over the St. Louis Rams, so it should work again. If the Falcons players don’t cooperate by getting hurt and leaving the game like the Rams did, the Eagles will be forced to go to Plan B.

Unfortunately for Eagles fans who have been paying attention for the last 12 years, Andy Reid never has a Plan B.

The Eagles are simply a more talented team than the young Rams, but the Falcons were 13-3 last season and a perfect 8-0 at home. That’s significant since the game will be played in the Georgia Dome. And any of you who would like to point out that one of those three loses last year by the Falcons was to the Eagles; need to think about the fact that this is a different Eagles team than last year.

Much will be about Michael Vick’s return to Atlanta as a starter. Ho hum. National media frenzy about a non-issue since they just push the sensational story lines. That’s just lazy. Let’s really look at this matchup.

Vick did not have a good game throwing against the Rams and was running for his life most of the game. That explains the 97 rushing yards. The Falcons have two stud pass-rushing ends in John Abraham and Ray Edwards. In the Dome, I’m putting the over/under on penalties on Jason Peters at two. With the silent snap counts necessary in a loud dome and facing Abraham, Peters will false start at least once or twice and is always good for a holding call as well. On the other side, Herremans will be starting his second career game at right tackle. Oh yeah, the interior of the line is still a rookie at center and two journeyman guards.

Let’s assume Vick gets more than a second to throw. In that case, the Eagles have a distinct advantage with DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin and Jason Avant against the Falcons secondary. CB Dunta Robinson is nursing a hamstring injury and the Falcons safeties are better in run-support than defending the pass. Expect better passing yardage out of Vick this week against a suspect Atlanta pass defense. He may even top 200 yards. TE Brent Celek is going to be too busy blocking all season to be a reliable pass-catcher though.

The most deceiving stat in the NFL right now is the Eagles No. 1 rank in rushing offense. Those stats are padded by 97 yards from Vick scrambles on called passing play when the protection broke down and a 49-yard TD run when the Rams defense wore down in the fourth quarter. That’s not to say that LeSean McCoy isn’t a great player though. He is proving to be a legitimate weapon, but he won’t ever get more than 20 touches in a game with Andy Reid as the coach. I expect him to catch a few screens after chipping those DEs though.

The Falcons offense is light-years better than the Rams. Led by Turner and quarterback Matt Ryan, the Falcons have one of the most balanced offenses in the NFL.

Ryan had one of the league’s best TDs-to-INTs ration last season (28-9) and the Falcons traded up to draft him a new toy. That would be receiver Julio Jones.

On an offense that already had Roddy White, who led the NFL with 115 catches last season and future Hall-of-Famer TE Tony Gonzalez, that’s almost not fair.

Yes, the Eagles have the best CBs in the NFL with Nnamdi Asomugha, Asante Samuel and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, but there is simply no way to completely shut down that much receiving talent. Especially not with the way Samuel gambles to pad his personal stats to the detriment of the team. Jones or White will burn Samuel for a long TD.

Gonzalez has undoubtedly lost a step from his prime, but considering that he will be covered by either LB Jamar Chaney or one of the safeties, he should easily grab a few balls and probably reach the end zone. He had two TDs against the Eagles last year.

The Eagles will have to stay with their base defense most of the time, to try to stop Turner. That will help Ryan with play-action fakes and prevent the Eagles from using a CB on Gonzalez. Ryan is a smart player who checks down to his underneath receivers rather than throw into coverage. That may mean a long day for the Eagles linebackers.

Of course, unless the Falcons coaching staff is as dumb as Rams offensive coordinator Josh McDaniel’s, they may not bother throwing the ball very much.

The Eagles PR staff and their lapdogs in the media like to point out that the Eagles defense got better against the run as the game went on last week. Sure, they held the Rams to only 3.4 yards per carry after giving up 90 yards on the first two possessions, but maybe that had a little more to do with Steven Jackson getting injured than anything the Eagles defense did.

The Eagles defensive line is set up to attack quarterbacks and while they did get five sacks last week, they almost ignore the run completely. The Falcons gave up five sacks last week against the Bears after giving up only 23 all last season, so maybe the Eagles can get to Ryan a few times this week. This new Eagles defense prefers to get pressure with their four down linemen and rotating eight linemen all game helps to keep them fresh. It will also help Trent Cole from wearing down in the second half like he always does.

Of course, the best way to stop a pass rush is with a dominant running game. That’s where Turner comes in. At 247 pounds he is the perfect back for the Falcons to attack the soft middle of the Eagles defense. That wide defensive line front the Eagles use, exposes rookie MLB Casey Matthews to guards getting on him and taking him completely out of plays. I don’t see the Falcons giving up on pounding the ball right at the Eagles defense all game long like the Rams did. And that will force the Eagles to bring the safeties up, which will prevent any double coverage of those speedy receivers.

By the way, the record for most rushing yards in a single game is held by Baltimore Ravens RB Jamal Lewis, with 295 yards. The Sunday Night Football crew might just be throwing that stat out there during the second half.

The Eagles rookie kickers didn’t do anything wrong in their first game, but Alex Henery may have been the only kicker in the NFL who didn’t get a touchback on every kickoff. The Falcons also have a rookie punter, but kicker Matt Bryant made 28 of 31 FGs last season and made both of his kicks in Week 1.

Reid is overmatched against even average coaching and that may best describe the Falcons staff. Head coach Mike Smith, OC Mike Mularky and DC Brian Van Gorder aren’t exactly on the Mount Rushmore of coaching, but as long as they saw the tape from Week 1, they’ll know how to expose the weaknesses on the Eagles.

The Falcons got down big to the Bears last week and abandoned the run too early, yet Tuner still had 100 yards on 10 carries. Now a team that many predicted to make the Super Bowl returns home staring at a possible 0-2 start.

Both teams should be able to score some points in this game. The Falcons best bet to get a win is to run the ball to control the clock and keep the ball away from the explosive Eagles offense. This game will be close, but the Falcons have enough weapons to take advantage of the things that the Eagles defense doesn’t do well. That will be the difference.

Falcons 30 – Eagles 24


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