The UFC returns to Fox on Jan. 28, and the fight card looks great. I’d say it easily rivals – at least on paper – some past pay-per-view cards, and it’s free. Rashad Evans takes on Phil Davis, Chael Sonnen fights Mark Munoz, and Michael Bisping faces Demian Maia. And that’s just the beginning. I don’t know how many fights will be broadcast, but hardcore fans will likely recognize the names in some of the other matchups, such as Evan Dunham vs. Nik Lentz and Cub Swanson vs. George Roop.
I’m a bit surprised at the choice for headliner: “Suga” Rashad Evans vs Phil “Mr. Wonderful” Davis. Evans is well known, both from his Ultimate Fighter fame and overall accomplishments, and Davis is an undefeated contender, but Sonnen has gotten an awful lot of press for a number of reasons, including his mouth, legal issue, near defeat of Anderson Silva and subsequent suspension. And like him or not, he and/or Munoz are at least as close to a title shot as Evans and/or Davis.
But it is what it is, and the headliner is Evans and Davis. Davis has never lost, but Evans has lost only once, and he’s had a lot more fights. It seems like he’s fought almost everyone at light heavyweight and he’s beaten everyone he’s faced, with the exception of Lyoto Machida. I think you have to figure Evans wins this one. The betting lines are around -155 for Evans and +125 for Davis. I’m not sure I would place a bet either way on this one, but if I had to, I’d still go with Evans.
Back to Chael Sonnen vs. Mark Munoz. I personally find this fight to be more interesting, not just because of all the controversy surrounding Sonnen, but also because I like the matchup. Sonnen, despite not being very well known for much of his career, has been on a tear. He’s got a nice winning streak going and has been closer than anyone by far to beating Anderson Silva in the UFC. But Munoz’s record is pretty impressive as well. He, like Sonnen, is also a great wrestler and I wonder if negating Sonnen’s usual wrestling advantage (assuming he’s able to do so) might be enough to earn the win. The betting lines I’ve seen are around -275 for Sonnen and +215 for Munoz. I see this as being 50/50 in terms of who wins, but maybe I’m just really hoping Sonnen loses. At any rate, seeing this at 50/50 makes it a pretty easy choice in terms of who to bet on: Munoz, at better than 2 to 1.
Related: Gambling on MMA: An Explanation of Betting Lines
The third of the big three fights is Michael Bisping vs. Demian Maia. I never used to understand why so many people seemed to dislike Bisping, but it’s become more apparent to me over the last year or two. That being said, I still don’t understand why so many people think he’s not very good. Sure, he might be a bit overhyped, perhaps as a way to build and keep the British fan base, but the guy is definitely a good fighter. I’d love to see Maia win, but I just don’t think it will happen. At around -200 for Bisping and +160 for Maia, I wouldn’t bet either way, but if I had to, I’d go with Bisping at 1 to 2.
Well, those are my thoughts. My overriding hope is that this is a ratings success so we get to see more free big name fights. Enjoy everyone.