Talk of a possible Greek debt default grew louder as the day wore on Friday, with several Eurozone officials commenting that they expect a default over the weekend. Naturally, the markets didn’t respond positively to the news. Combine that with the terror alerts in New York City and Washington, DC this weekend for the 10th anniversary of 9/11, and it was a recipe for heavy selling.
The Dow closed off more than 300 points to finish another wildly volatile week, and based on the action and news, we could be headed for another huge Monday morning gap down. However, it was difficult to chase shorts at the end of the day at such oversold levels, because if the Greek default doesn’t come to fruition and there is no major terrorist attack, those short positions would likely be in serious pain.
The news of a possible Greek default, which would be a historic first-time event, overshadowed any individual stock stories today. In isolation, the default of a relatively small Eurozone economy would not be the “end of the world”, but with other, larger Euro economies standing on extremely shaky ground (especially Italy), such an event could trigger a domino effect unlike anything ever witnessed in modern human history.
Conventional wisdom would tell you that gold shot through the roof on a day like this, but whispers about potential margin hikes pushed GLD to a lower open and seemed to keep the metal at bay. Even with the market tanking, GLD had a hard time ticking higher.
Technical Take
If you take a step back and look at the SPY chart on a daily and even weekly time frame, the obvious pattern that jumps out at you is a wide, but well-defined, bear flag. Previously, we noted the well-defined head and shoulders pattern that forecast the deep correction.
The only strategies that have worked, and provided limited risk, over the past month have been buying and selling extreme moves in both directions. Large gap downs on Monday and Tuesday had investors extremely bearish–the most bearish since September 2007–which gave way to a steep short squeeze. As we’ve seen before, that low-volume bounce/short squeeze was only “transitory”, as Ben Bernanke would put it. The oversold bounce we saw early in the week actually turned out to be a negative event for the bulls, because it allowed the market to work off its severely oversold condition and prime for another plunge.
After such a harsh move lower, which began around the time of the debt ceiling debate and S&P downgrade, it is natural for there to be some indecision in the indices. However, nobody would have expected the range to remain as wide as it has been. Resolution to this pattern will come at one point or another, and based in the in-bound move, there will be a powerful secondary move (more than likely to the downside). The lower end of the channel also lines up with the 200-week Moving Average, which will be another crucial technical level.
The measured move could take the S&P down to the 1,000 range if a worst-case type scenario plays out, which would involve a Greek debt default that triggered a domino effect in Europe that could likely trigger defaults in at least a few other PIIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, Spain) nations as well.
Technically, we are also seeing some clues that tell us that all is not well with Mr. Market. Nearly every sector is currently mired in a bearish technical formation; there are no rays of light. The one area of relative strength early in the week, is starting to look ready to break down as well.
One clue we look to first is high-beta tech. If the market is healthy under the hood, the leading high-beta tech stocks will usually hold up well. We saw some relative strength early in the week from the likes of Apple Inc. (AAPL), Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) and Baidu.com Inc. (BIDU), but none of them were able to withstand the force of today’s drop. AAPL and BIDU in particular look to be forming wedge continuation patterns, which generally resolve to the downside.
During the formation of the head and shoulders pattern, for example, the Industrials (XLI) and the Homebuilders (XHB) started to break down first, which signaled to us that the rest of the market wasn’t far behind.
When selling is isolated and weak sectors drag the market down, it can be considered a buying opportunity for strong stocks. When selling is more across-the-board, it’s a sign to get of the way.
The measured move of the head and shoulder played out almost to a ‘T’ (as you can see on the chart). Technical patterns aren’t always perfect, but they provide a good roadmap. Another thing you have to understand about technical analysis too is that it is largely a self-fulfilling prophecy. Moves in the market often play out simply because a large group of traders and investors are reacting based on the same set of rules.
Before the break of the head and shoulders, you had the more mainstream media start talking about the ‘scary’ head and shoulders top pattern, which got both Main St. and Wall St. bearish. Now, everyone in the industry is talking about this ominous bear flag pattern, which is likely to make its rounds in the more mainstream media this weekend (along with the news about Greece).
Final Word
While doomsday talk is rampant right now–between a domino effect of European sovereign debt defaults to 9/11 anniversary attacks–as traders we never trade based on assumptions. The traders who are consistent and profitable over the long haul are the ones who, first and foremost, limit their risk. At the end of the day today, for example, there is enormous risk for both longs and shorts.
If Greece does default and/or there is some sort of attack on NYC/DC, the market is sure to open sharply lower on Monday. However, if one or both of those events do not occur, shorts would be in for a massive squeeze. After such a harsh down day like today, it is best to take any profits you may have generated and take a firm seat on the sidelines.
Even if you are not involved in the weekend trade, there will be tremendous opportunity over the next few weeks to take advantage of this historic market volatility. Great opportunity comes with great risk, so be sure to, more than ever, stick to your personal trading rules and don’t make big bets you can’t afford to pay off.
*DISCLOSURE: Scott Redler has no positions
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