Human technology has irrevocably changed society wherever it is introduced, but what is novel about the computer revolution is the relatively short span of time it took for it to displace everything. Gutenburg’s printing press has nothing on the proliferation of ever-more-powerful computers.
Coinciding with the digital equivalent of the Big Bang was the overnight rise of giant influences of modern lives–including video games. Thirty years ago, video games were still a nascent format with little clear future. Twenty years ago, video games were still a kid’s plaything. Now, video games have penetrated into every demographic; according to recent statistics, over 90% of children play games, the average age of gamers is 37, and women are increasingly achieving parity–over 40% of gamers are now of the fairer sex, and they are a more significant portion of gamers than male children, according to the Entertainment Software Association.
In addition to their social impact, the industry is a juggernaut. The biggest entertainment launches of all time have been games–Halo 2, Halo 3, and more recently Modern Warfare 3. While the size of the industry cannot yet reach touch the massive reach and production of Hollywood, Bollywood and the world cinema, they’ve certainly reached it in sales. The US movie industry grossed around $9 billion in 2011, according to The Numbers–meanwhile, the global games industry made $65 billion. That’s twice the gross national product of Ghana, all from what was once dismissed as a fad.
So where do goes go from here? One thing is certain–gaming is the most mercurial medium left to us. Books are old hat, magazines stagnant, newspapers dying, cinema codified, television formalized, yet the tight marriage of gaming and ever-more-powerful computers means that we can’t really be sure where the medium will end up.
So what’s next? Predicting the future via crystal ball is inherently dangerous, but there are some good indicators from the maturation of previous media and other tech trends that we can use to predict some of the changes. My thoughts on where gaming will go break down into some basic areas:
On-Demand Games, and Streaming Storage
The personal computer was never a dedicated gaming platform, and even now we see gaming consoles moving away from just games to a more broad entertainment center. Sony markets its PlayStation 3 as “it only does everything” for a reason, and in that regard the push is likely to continue. Unlike consoles, however, consumers have not traditionally swapped out their entertainment peripherals quite so often; at this point, a 1080p television isn’t going to be outdated any time soon–although television makers would certainly like to push 4K resolution sets onto shelves as soon as it becomes reasonable to do so.
Because home entertainment in general is driven more by casual considerations, the concept of a “gaming plus all other entertainment” paired device might become incongruous. What is certain, however, is that hard formats like the Blu-Ray discs the PlayStation 3 uses are going to be less important. The dropping prices of storage, the advent of flash solid-state drives, and increasing proliferation of high-quality broadband connections means that streaming is probably the next big thing to hit games. Netflix, Hulu, and other companies have shown that many consumers would rather sample from a library rather than buy expensive and bulky DVD or Blu-Ray collections, and it’s likely that something similar could happen to part of the video game market. Many games, especially casual games, simply don’t need the storage space of a high-capacity disc. Old titles are often offered on Microsoft’s Games on Demand service, and the trend of offering games without the physical medium is likely to continue. People like convenience, and sending the games straight to them is convenient. Perhaps an analogue to television streaming will come into play, similar to the OnLive service.
Gaming on the Go
Paired with the increasing ubiquity of online multiplayer gaming and the proliferation of different form factors for game devices, from Xboxes to iPads, having ways to centralize your games and play them across devices is going to be even more of an incentive for gamers. Microsoft has let you transfer your gamer profile via a USB stick, but recently has been offering games space in the cloud to store their game saves. Services like Steam have risen in prominence in part because they offer a managed version of gaming where players are always connected online and get automatic updates.
Casual and Hardcore Gamers Live in Peace
There’s been much ado made about how the increasing number of “casual” gamers are detracting from “hardcore” gamers (“see ‘The Battle of Hardcore and Casual Gamers’) that people miss one big point–the gaming tent is getting bigger, but gaming is also getting bigger. We don’t know what the theoretical ceiling for the size of the game industry is–$80 billion? $100 billion?–but we do know that there’s still a lot of potential for games to make inroads to other demographics.
There’s nothing like a commercial proposition to stir a capitalist’s heart, and that means that every brand of gamer is going to be catered to. Just want a diversion for your commute? Arcade-style games that are quick to learn and don’t take too much time will fit your bill. Need something to lose yourself in when your day is done? Try something with a little more depth. The hardcore and professional gamers will still have their StarCraft as long as there are Koreans, and kids will have Mario and Hello Kitty as long as those exist (probably forever).
The greatest thing about the games market is it is still very much in its infancy. I don’t think that it will always be sunshine and rainbows–while the industry has shown itself fairly resistant to economic downturns thus far, it’s precipitated some of its own as well–but there’s a broad, emerging trend that supports big-budget games and yet allows smaller indie titles to thrive, and that is perhaps the most hopeful trend that could continue in the future. People will want to game, and the developers are ready to provide them with new ways to do it.
References
Devin Coldewey (October 11, 2011) “91% of Kids Aged 2-17 Playing Video Games”. TechCrunch. Retrieved January 18, 2012.
“Essential Facts About the Computer and Video Game Industry”. ESA. Retrieved January 18, 2012.
Marc Chacksfield (November 11, 2011). “Modern Warfare 3 Biggest Entertainment Launch Ever.” TechRadar. Retrieved January 19, 2012.
“US Movie Market Summary 1995-2012.” The Numbers. Retrieved January 17, 2012.
“Factbox: A Look At the $65 Billion Video Game Industry.” Reuters. Retrieved January 18, 2012.
Jon Healey (January 11, 2012). “CES 2012: 4K TV Sets Make Their Debut”. LA Times. Retrieved January 19, 2012.
“Store Your Game Saves In the Cloud”. Microsoft. Retrieved January 16, 2012.
More gaming and tech stories by David Fuchs: “A Wishlist for Next Generation Consoles” / “Better Than Ever: What Gamers Want From Video Game Sequels” / “How to Remake A Video Game”