The San Francisco 49ers’ dynasty ended in 1999 after Steve Young suffered the final concussion of his great career. The 49ers reached the playoffs only twice after the injury (2001 & 2002). Even in those two playoff seasons, they really were not Super Bowl contenders. Dennis Erickson, Mike Nolan, and Mike Singletary were all disasters as head coaches. Their coaching philosophies were completely different from Bill Walsh’s philosphy. Why did the 49ers’ management go away from what made the team successful and brought 5 Super Bowl championships to the team?
The 2011 season brings hope that the team will return to being Super Bowl contenders. Hiring Jim Harbaugh was the first step in a long road to their next Super Bowl. Remember, Bill Walsh guided the 49ers to the playoffs and their first Super Bowl victory in his third season with the team. It makes sense that it will take at least that long for Harbaugh to guide the 49ers to their 6th Super Bowl. After a long absence, Harbaugh is bringing back the West Coast Offense.
The key to Harbaugh’s success will be developing a Pro Bowl level quarterback. Bill Walsh had Joe Montana. George Seifert had Steve Young. Even the Patriots and Bill Belichick have Tom Brady. In a quarterback driven league, the 49ers need a Pro Bowl level quarterback to win their next Super Bowl.
How the 49ers do this season will depend heavily on Alex Smith. He has been a big disappointment after being picked #1 overall in 2005. He does not seem to have the “it” factor. He seems to lack confidence and improvisational skills when plays break down. With Harbaugh’s coaching, I expect Alex to have a decent season. Based on QB rating, he’ll probably rank between 15th and 20th. I don’t think that’s good enough to keep him around after 2011.
The 49ers drafted QB Colin Kaepernick in the 2nd round, with hopes that he will be the quarterback of the future. I am skeptical of Kaepernick because of his long, slow delivery. The hesitation in his throwing motion tells the defense “here it comes!”. The positives are he is athletic, has a powerful arm, and seems to study the playbook well.
QB Scott Tolzien seems to be a decent prospect. He was extremely accurate in college, has average arm strength, and is smart. If he has to play this season, he will probably perform better than Kaepernick.
Harbaugh’s rebuilding process might take a few years. Hopefully he will continue to gamble on developing at least two quarterbacks at a time, instead of only one. He shouldn’t throw all of his eggs into one basket.