In most fantasy leagues, the difference between first and missing the playoffs is too small to take needless risks on a high draft pick. You need to use your high picks on consistent, season-long producers. While no glaring risks pop out when looking at the average Yahoo! Draft position for this year (such as taking Ryan Mathews in the first round did last year… unfortunately in hind-sight for this author) several needless risks still are lurking around in the draft. The following players could have monster years, but the risks they carry versus other available players make their value in the draft questionable.
Michael Vick – Avg. Y! League Pick 9.0 – Vick is coming off the year of his life. He is a hot fantasy commodity and sure to have some spectacular numbers at various points during the season. As a mobile quarterback and natural gambler on the football field, he is also a huge injury risk. Back in 2003, Vick lost the entire season to injury. Even last year, the more mature Vick missed several games to injury. Moreover, he is now 31 years old and played much of his career imitating a running back. Many running backs break down at 30 years old. If, on the other hand, Vick does stay healthy, the Eagles have enough talent to pull away from their division and shut down their stars during the fantasy playoffs. Neither outcome is good from a fantasy perspective. When too many other talented QB’s are available, Vick is a big risk at #9.
Maurice Jones-Drew – Avg. Y! League Pick 14.6 – Jones-Drew is a small guy playing among giants. He needs his athleticism to survive and is coming off of a major knee surgery. He’s also looking over his shoulder at Rashad Jennings, who averaged 5.5 yards per carry and hung over 100 yards on the scoreboard twice at the end of last season.
Peyton Manning – Avg. Y! League Pick 18.6 – Manning is one of the best and most durable QB’s of all-time. That said, he is coming off of his second neck surgery in two years and playing behind an offensive line filled with vets that are past their primes and untested young players. At some point, even the mighty Manning becomes an injury risk. Given the relative weakness of their division, the Colts also stand to pull away from their division and shut down their stars during the fantasy playoffs. When several other productive QB’s are on the board, Manning may not be the best value available in the middle of round 2.
Steven Jackson – Avg. Y! League Pick 29.7 – Jackson is 28 years old and has been carrying St. Louis on his back for years. Running backs have historically broken down around 29 or 30 years of age and defenders have only gotten bigger, faster, and harder-hitting in recent years. Jackson is a physical specimen that could certainly buck that trend, but it hard to justify the risk when younger backs on the rise will likely still be on the board.
Dez Bryant – Avg. Y! League Pick 40.5 – So, I guess this is just outside the third round, but do you really want to spend a pick this high on a #2 WR with an inconsistent QB and a jet liner full of excess baggage. I suppose the potential reward is great and might be justified in the fourth round, but just be sure you are prepared for a worst case scenario.