Conflict isn’t just for mob bosses with Mommy issues or cancer-stricken chemistry teachers. For just pennies a day….. My bad. I was going to go full Jerry Lewis on ya’ll (y’all?) but not today. But don’t be afraid to donate to a worth cause. Or me. I’m worthy. Wait, they beg to differ. Now I’m really dating myself. And even I don’t think I’m good lookin’ (rimshot). Rodney Dangerfield must be rolling in his grave right about now.
I seriously am conflicted right now. It’s understandable. I’m trying to practice what I preach. What everybody preaches. Buy-low. Sell-high. Now if everybody knows this, why do we still advise people to do it? Why does it work? Because it’s far harder to do (that’s what she said!) than it sounds. It’s pure human nature. You see the player who did well in Week 1 and you say to yourself “I should sell-high, but what if he keeps this up?” Meanwhile, you’re looking at the guy who severely underperformed in Week 1 and you think to yourself “I should buy-low, but what if he keeps this up?”
NOTE: The easiest sell-high situation is when you wind up with a player on your roster whom you don’t really like. You might normally sell-low on such a player, simply because you don’t believe or trust in them. If you’re able to sell-high on such a player, of course you will do it. It will barely even matter who you get it return. That’s not really the kind of situation we’re talking about here.
So here I am with two players I loved in the preseason; Robert Meachem and Mike Tolbert. True be told, things really could not have gone better for these two guys in Week 1. Tolbert even went from possibly suffering a bad injury to being perfectly healthy for Week 2. I thought Meachem would be the #1 fantasy WR in New Orleans, even with Colston and Lance Moore healthy. Now Colston is out for a month and Moore could still miss multiple games as well. Are you kidding me? In a full PPR league? Spectacular.
So now what? Let’s be realistic here. I liked Meachem and Tolbert. In a PPR league I thought that Meachem could be a nice WR3 and Tolbert could be a low-end RB2 or an excellent flex play. So I have to at least aim a bit higher.
DISCLAIMER: I’m cherry-picking two guys here because they fit the buy-low, sell-high scenario for me. For your team, the players will be different. But the concepts should be the same.
Ok, we’ve established what the minimum threshold of player is I would want in trade for Meachem or Tolbert. Now it gets trickier. You have to consider the composition of your team. Do you have a bunch of steady performers? Do you have players who’s scoring wildly varies from week-to-week? Are you particularly weak or strong at any positions?
Now there are two ways to go about figuring who to actually trade with and for what. (For who!? For what!?)
Target individual players. These will be players that you targeted in your drafts that had poor performances in Week 1. For instance I might target Percy Harvin. I liked him going into the year and while he did score a return TD, he did nothing in the the passing game. Or maybe think bigger and go for say, Vincent Jackson. You could also target players with injuries (ie: Steven Jackson), especially if they are owned by teams that lost in Week 1. Target teams with a weakness at the position you are trying to sell. This becomes a bit more complicated. You might be able to extract the value you are looking for, but it might not be at the position that you desire. If you feel you’re able to trade frequently and well enough to make it work, this won’t bother you. If you don’t want to have to make another move or two, only make the deal for exactly what you want.
Now that you’ve hopefully figured out what you have, what you want and who’s got it, you’re onto the next step. You’re going to look at every player and every deal. You’re going to hate it all. When you examine the player you are selling-high on with the player you’re attempting to buy low on, you will go through a specific set of reactions. In no particular order:
His schedule is so bad. He’s injury prone. That offense just isn’t good. Does he even get the ball that much? Really, this guy? I’m gonna trade for this guy? Do I really want to do this? Who’s the quarterback over there now? Who else does this guy have?
You will then proceed to make an offer that’s, quite frankly, not that good. It’s a first offer. Just remember not to be insulting. I remember last season a dude offered me Jahvid Best for Ray Rice after Week 1 and I almost bit his head off. He had the right idea, he just caught me at a bad time. So don’t be deterred if the initial response isn’t positive. And remember, you don’t HAVE to make a deal. At least not yet. If you already need to make a deal, you either had the worst draft ever or you have the worst luck with injuries ever. You’re making a deal to improve the value of your team and your chances of winning. As soon as you’re not doing those things, you’re making a bad deal. Never deal just for the sake of dealing. Or “just for the fun of it”. That’s what Putt Putt is for.
I might have just talked myself out of trading these guys after all. Or maybe even further into it. I’m still crucially conflicted. Monitor the ongoing struggle via the Twitter. Good luck to all this week.