1. Aaron Rodgers- Coming off a monster statistical year (second in total fantasy points for the position) and a magical playoff run that ended in a super bowl victory, there is no reason to believe Rodgers won’t put up big numbers this season too. His receiving weapons are excellent, he is entering the prime of his career, and should only feel more confident behind center with a Super Bowl MVP trophy under his infamous “championship belt”. If there is a QB deserving of a first round selection, Rodgers is your guy.
2. Michael Vick: The injury concerns are there, and the phrase “regression to the mean” comes to mind when discussing Vick’s chances of replicating his tremendous 2010 season. However, if there is one guy that can literally win you a game by himself in the fantasy world, it’s him. I can attest to that: last year: I was up 30 points with my opponent only having Michael Vick left on Monday Night Football. The freak put up 50 points and crushed my fantasy dreams. Be aware of the risks, but Vick could pay huge dividends if he stays healthy.
3. Drew Brees: A model of consistency. Brees has been a great fantasy option for half a decade, raking up insane yardage totals while at the same time maintaining immaculate accuracy and piling up TD’s. Last year was a bit of a down year for Brees, but 4500 yards and 30 TD’s are easily achievable in New Orleans’ dynamic offense.
4. Phillip Rivers: Rivers is a stud, plainly put. The only reason I am ranking him below Brees is due to my personal opinion that the Chargers will lean on the run a bit more this season than they have the past few years. Norv Turner has two excellent backs in Ryan Mathews and Mike Tolbert (at least in theory: I’m not quite sold on Mathews yet, but he should be heavily used), and San Diego’s excellent defense figures to limit Rivers’ chances to throw and rack up yardage and points late in games. Despite a likely return to a more balanced offensive plan, lets not forget Rivers threw for an insane 4700 yards last year. I predict somewhere between 4300 and 4500 yards for Rivers, along with 28-32 passing TD’s.
5. Tom Brady: Terrific Tom had an incredible season last year, compiling a stupendous TD to interception ration (36:4) and leading the Patriots to yet another winning season. If this were a rankings of the best QB’s in the NFL, Brady might very well be n. 1 on the list. However, we are talking about fantasy here, and Brady, in my opinion, will not blow anybody away this upcoming season. I don’t like his available weapons: Ochocinco is not the answer at the WR position; Wes Welker is a fine possession receiver but fails to give Brady a true deep field threat. For those who will argue that Brady did just fine last year without any big name receivers, let’s remember that despite leading the league in TD’s, Brady finished 3rd overall at the QB position due to a lack of significant yardage totals (about 800 yards less than Rivers). And who wants to bet that the Gronkowsky-Hernandez duo fails to replicate it’s ridiculous 16 TD total from last year? I foresee a drop in TD’s to the 27-30 range, which means solid but unspectacular production for fantasy owners from the New England standout.
6. Tony Romo: I flirted with the idea of putting Manning here, but for now, Romo takes 6th place over the Indianapolis god. Look, Romo has durability concerns and is under a significant amount of pressure in Dallas to produce results, so he doesn’t come without risk. But if you look at his production last year on the field, you will be impressed by his consistency. He finished in the top 5 in fantasy points per game, and with the development of Dez Bryant (not to mention the presence of fantasy stalwarts Miles Austin and Jason Witten), Romo has good odds to put up good numbers this year in Dallas.
7. Peyton Manning: The best QB of a generation, arguably the greatest passer ever to step on the gridiron, a fantasy icon for the past 10 years… at number 7? Look, Manning is a force when healthy, and since he has never missed a game throughout his illustrious career, he’s been a force more often than not. But we have to remember that Manning is getting up there in age (he turned 35 in March), and he underwent neck surgery in the off-season, which has rendered him unable to practice at all during training camp. I would be shocked if Manning missed more than a few games, but his statistical line might be affected by his lack of off-season conditioning and practice. I’m not arguing that he will be a fantasy bust, but a similar campaign to what he posted in 08/09, when he missed all of training camp with a knee injury, might be in the works. I predict 25-28 TD’s and around 4000 yards for Manning.
8. Matt Schaub: Though not always consistent, it’s hard to deny Schaub’s potential in the fantasy world. Last season, Schaub was the number 1 QB over the last 5 weeks. Hard to believe, right? I know because he was on my team and helped me achieve 1st place in my yahoo! fantasy league. Okay, shameless plugs aside, Shaub was also the n.3 QB two seasons ago, attesting to his fantasy prowess. If your strategy is to wait until the later rounds of the draft to pick up a QB, Shaub could be your guy. I picked him up for cheap in my auction draft this season, and I’m hoping he pays big dividends.
9. Matt Ryan: Ryan has everything going for him: he’s in his prime, he’s tied to a great offense, he has a new toy, Julio Jones, to play with (and open up defenses for fantasy stud Roddy White), and Michael Turner is still around to keep defenses focused on the run. His upside might be limited by the conservative nature of Atlanta’s offense, but if the preseason counts for anything, Ryan figures to be throwing the ball more this season than in the past (he aired it out 42 times… in one half!). Ryan could be a solid option and should finish in the top 10 at the position.
10. Ben Roethlesberger: I like Big Ben, just not that much. Pitt’s offense is known for its run heavy mode of attack (Mendenhall is one of the only backs in the league that figures to carry the ball 300+ times), so Ben’s upside is definitely limited. That’s not to say that he can’t post 4000 yards and 30 TD’s: he has a plethora of WR’s, including burner Mike Wallace, to help him achieve that. He just won’t need to. The Steelers have one of the best defenses in the league, which means Big Ben is likely to not be throwing the ball much late in games. He’s not a bad QB to have, but he’s not an elite fantasy option.
11. Eli Manning: Say all you will about the turnovers, the erratic play, the run heavy NY offense- Manning still put over 4000 yards last year for the second year in a row, coupled with 31 TD’s. He won’t bring it week in and week out, but when Eli is on his game, he puts up above stellar fantasy totals. See his 300/4 stat line against the Eagles in week 15. I would be lying to you if I told you I would feel comfortable with Manning as my weekly started, but there is no denying the proven production of the younger Manning.
12. Josh Freeman: I like Freeman a lot, and believe he will develop into one of the better QB’s in the NFL this year. However, it remains to be said that Freeman finished at the bottom of the list for pass attempts last year for starting QB’s. I am looking for volume at the QB position, and Freeman’s potential and clutch play doesn’t make up for the fact that Tampa Bay will rely on a conservative mix of pass and run to win games, which means that Freeman will likely not be a fantasy stud this year. He finished 7th last year in fantasy points at the QB position, though, so keep that in mind on draft day.
13. Joe Flacco: Safe bet for 3500 yards/25 TD’s.
14. Matt Stafford: Tons of potential, but can he remain healthy? He reminds me of Mr. Glass from Shyamalan’s thriller Unbreakable. At best, he puts up 3500/20-25. Let’s remember he hasn’t played a full season as a starter yet. Temper your expectations.
15. Kyle Orton: Can he stay the starter the whole year in Denver?
16. Sam Bradford: Good sleeper pick- nab him late on draft day.
17. Kevin Kolb: No options apart from Fitzgerald = lowered fantasy ceiling.
18. Jay Cutler
19. Matt Cassel
20. Mark Sanchez
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