With the NFL Combine just a few days away I figured I would start the process of breaking down this year’s draft prospects. Through my contacts in the NFL I’ve received videos of close to 150 draft prospects. I use what I see on those videos combined with countless hours of watching college football to form my opinions.
Let’s kick things off with the position that will most likely produce the top two selections in this year’s draft: quarterback.
Cream of the Crop
Andrew Luck, Stanford
The Good: There’s a lot to like when watching Luck on tape. The first two things I look for in a quarterback is how he surveys the field and if he can make every throw required in the NFL on a consistent basis. Luck is clearly the best quarterback in this draft class at both of those things.
No quarterback in college football looks off his primary receiver better than Luck. If his first option isn’t there, Luck doesn’t waste time. He immediate looks for another receiver.
Luck also does a great job of fitting the ball into tight spots. Remember, Stanford didn’t have the most talented skill position players on the planet and a lot of times Luck had to fit the ball in a tight window.
Luck may not be Robert Griffin but he has good pocket presence and he moves around well to avoid sacks. The biggest compliment I can give to Luck is when you watch him on tape you feel like you’re already looking at a pro quarterback.
The Bad: Luck didn’t have a lot of weaknesses in college but the one I noticed watching him on tape is sometimes he has too much confidence in his arm strength. Luck has a very good arm but he doesn’t have the freakish arm strength of a John Elway or Brett Favre. Those guys could make bad throws at times and get away with it simply because the ball got to the receiver so quickly.
Luck does a good job of reading defenses and delivering the ball to the right target a majority of the time. He just has to remember that at the NFL level defenders are faster than the guys he played against in college, so sometimes taking a sack or throwing the ball away is better than trying to fire a pass into coverage.
The Bottom Line: People use the term “once in a lifetime” a lot when referring to Luck. In my opinion the only two college quarterbacks I’ve seen that fit into the once in a lifetime category are Elway and Peyton Manning. I wouldn’t quite put Luck in that class but he’s a nice, safe pick for the Colts at No. 1.
Luck has everything NFL teams look for in a quarterback. He’s big, strong, smart and a great leader. You really can’t ask for much more than that out of a college quarterback. My guess is Luck will be a premier NFL quarterback for many years to come, assuming the Colts don’t turn into a laughingstock organization once Manning leaves.
Robert Griffin III, Baylor
The Good: One thing I noticed about Griffin while watching him this season is that he’s a very accurate passer. People get hung up on Griffin’s running ability but the fact is he’s already a polished passer. I would say Griffin is a much more accurate thrower coming out of college than Cam Newton was a year ago.
Also, don’t fall for the “he plays in a spread offense” garbage some of these NFL people like to spew. As I pointed out last year with Newton, most of these college offenses run by guys like Gus Malzahn and Art Briles are much more sophisticated than the offenses currently being run in the NFL. I thought people saying Newton would have a hard time adjusting to a pro offense were way off base.
Seriously, how hard is to learn Cam Cameron’s run up the middle twice and throw an out on third down offense? We all know Griffin is an electrifying runner but he’s also a better passer than most people give him credit for being. I’m going to assume the people reading this already know about Griffin’s game-breaking running skills and world class speed, so I won’t bore you with talking about the obvious.
The Bad: Anyone who knows me knows I always say the same thing about the Big 12: it plays by far the worst defense of any major conference in college football. When Michael Crabtree was coming out one NFL scout said it was hard to asses him because he was rarely jammed at the line of scrimmage and always wide open.
I found the same thing to be true when watching Griffin on tape. So many of his receivers were wide open that it can make it hard to judge how effective Griffin is at throwing the ball into tight windows.
I think this is the one thing that separates Luck and Griffin for me. On tape you see Luck constantly fit the ball in between defenders, where the Baylor receivers are constantly running freely through those awful Big 12 defensive backfields. That’s not to say Griffin didn’t make some impressive throws in tight coverage, there just isn’t a huge sample size compared to a guy like Luck.
The other thing that concerns me a little about Griffin considering his style of play is his build. A former sprinter, Griffin has a runner’s build, unlike Newton and Tim Tebow who run a lot and are built like tanks. That can be a factor in the NFL. The Raiders Darren McFadden has a similar build and he’s had injury problems with his legs throughout his NFL career.
It’s not a huge deal but in college you would see Griffin get up slowly a lot after taking a big hit to the thigh area. Ray Lewis and Patrick Willis hit much harder than the starting inside linebacker for Texas Tech, so it’s something to keep an eye on.
The Bottom Line: I actually have Luck and Griffin rated very close. Like I said, I already consider Griffin to be a much better passer than most people. Briles is one of the best quarterback coaches on the planet and Griffin improved by leaps and bounds as a passer during his career at Baylor.
I expect Griffin to be the second player selected and while Luck is the safer pick, no one in this draft class has more upside than RGIII. In today’s NFL of explosive offenses and weaker defenses, a guy with Griffin’s physical skills has a chance to be special.
Next in Line
Ryan Tannehill, Texas A&M
Outlook: There’s a big drop-off after Luck and Griffin in my opinion. I view those two as franchise quarterbacks. I can’t say the same for any other quarterback in this class.
Tannehill is my third rated quarterback prospect right now by a thread over Nick Foles. Watching Tannehill on tape I see a player with a lively arm and most importantly he’s a leader that has the full confidence of his teammates.
Tannehill reminds me a little bit of Andy Dalton where he has those intangibles that make other players around him better. Tannehill is also tough as nails. More than once on tape Tannehill took on a defender to get extra yards and that fired up his team. Those are the kind of intangibles I’m talking about.
Tannehill hasn’t played the position as long as someone like Luck because he was a receiver during his first college seasons, so he isn’t quite as polished. He’ll make some exceptional throws but then he’ll make some throws that have you shaking your head.
I think if Tannehill goes to a team with a good offensive coaching staff and he’s given time to develop, he has a shot to be a good NFL quarterback. However, I don’t think he’s ready to get thrown into the mix right away. Tannehill is a great athlete but he’s still learning how to be a great quarterback, so it would be a mistake to rush him into action in my opinion.
Nick Foles, Arizona
Outlook: I’m a big fan of Foles. I actually have him rated evenly with Tannehill heading into the NFL Combine.
One thing you have to remember about Foles is he played for who I believe was the worst head coach in college football: Mike Stoops. Arizona quit on Stoops last year and at times watching tape it looked like Foles was the only Wildcat on the offensive side of the ball actually trying. Once Stoops was fired, the team played better and Foles finally got some better protection.
Foles may not blow your mind at the Combine or throw the ball 70 yards on his knees but he can make all the tough throws. In particular, Foles throws a very nice deep ball and he’s really accurate on those 15-30 yard passes over the middle.
Foles is also a tough guy. He got killed last year playing behind Arizona’s weak offensive line but he kept getting back up and firing away. Foles made a lot of impressive throws with defenders right in his face. One thing I really noticed on tape is it’s hard to rattle Foles.
Foles does have to work on his decision making. Sometimes he threw the ball into coverage and you wonder what he could have possibly been thinking. Although, that could have been a result of Foles constantly being under pressure and playing from behind.
When you’re talking about the whole package I think Foles has a chance to be one the best quarterbacks to come out of this draft class. I have him rated higher than most people and Foles could climb even further up my draft board as we get closer to April.
Brandon Weeden, Oklahoma State
Outlook: Weeden was the toughest quarterback for me to analyze. Sometimes I would watch him and think he should be the top overall pick. Other times I would watch him and wonder if he should even be drafted.
One thing I noticed about Weeden watching him this season and it was verified on tape is he can be a slow starter. There were a lot of times, including the bowl game against Stanford, where it took Weeden a quarter to warm up. I can’t put my finger on it but sometimes early on in games Weeden’s timing is just off with his receivers.
However, once Weeden heated up he was as accurate as any quarterback in the college game. In my opinion, Weeden is the type of quarterback that needs to go to the right system. I believe that will ultimately decide how successful he is in the NFL. Weeden would actually be perfect in a Run ‘n Shoot offense. He needs to throw the ball a lot. If a team drafts Weeden and tries to run a conservative offense with him, it won’t work.
And like I mentioned with Griffin, Weeden threw a ton of balls to wide open receivers. No quarterback I saw on tape had more wide open receivers to throw to than Weeden Again, that’s why he’s so hard for me to break down but he was accurate when he needed to be.
My gut tells me Weeden will end up being similar to Kyle Orton at the NFL level, which means he could become a second-tier starting quarterback for an 8-8 team.
Overrated
Brock Osweiler, Arizona State – I’m not a huge fan of Osweiler. I wouldn’t complain if he gets taken in the third or fourth round based on his physical skills but he seems to be moving up draft boards and that I don’t understand.
There’s no denying Osweiler has a strong arm and that’s probably why some NFL scouts are falling in love with him. Osweiler will likely wow at the Combine and his Pro Day but when watching him on tape he still has a long ways to go in my opinion.
Osweiler is the kind of quarterback who could be something three years down the road with some seasoning but if a team selects him in the first round and expects Osweiler to play right away, they’ll be making a mistake. He’s not ready to play in the NFL.
I view Osweiler as a poor man’s Ryan Mallett. The real Ryan Mallett was the 74th player drafted last year, so that tells you what I think about Osweiler being selected in the first round.
Kirk Cousins, Michigan State – Sometimes I’ll watch a guy during his career and think he’s simply a good college player. Then I’ll watch him on tape and he’ll change my mind. That wasn’t the case with Cousins. I still think he’ll end up being just a good college player.
The fact is I just don’t see Cousins make the tough throws consistently enough. His ball floats a lot and he doesn’t always allow his receivers to run after the catch. Also, I don’t think Cousins does a good job of surveying the field. When his first option is covered he looks confused in the pocket.
I stand by my original thinking that Cousins is a good college player who won’t be much more than a decent backup in the NFL.
Sleepers
Ryan Lindley, QB San Diego State – I watched Lindley and Boise State’s Kellen Moore back-to-back and in my opinion Lindley is a more physically gifted version of Moore.
I believe Moore is going to be better than people think and will likely be a valuable backup in the NFL but I do see his physical limitations on tape. Lindley has Moore’s impressive decision-making ability with a stronger arm.
The problem with Lindley is he’s a bit inconsistent. On some throws he looks like a first round draft pick but then he’ll go through a stretch where he struggles with accuracy. I think if Lindley can become more consistent, some NFL team could get a steal later in the draft.
Case Keenum, Houston – I know NFL teams question Keenum’s size and arm strength and on tape those concerns come out. However, the more you watch this kid the tougher it is not to like him.
Keenum is smart, he looks over the field well and he really takes command of the offense. I’m not sure what Keenum’s ceiling is but if I were a team sitting there later in the draft and Keenum was on the board, I would take a shot on him.
I’ll tell you the perfect landing spot for Keenum: Green Bay. If the Packers select Keenum and allow him to develop in their system, he could surprise people down the line.
Final Thoughts: In every draft some players will end up being better than anyone anticipated. That’s a given. However, on paper I see two legitimate franchise quarterbacks in this class with Luck and Griffin. There’s no doubt in my mind after watching them on tape that those two will go 1-2 come April.
In my opinion after the top two, the rest of the quarterbacks in this class are second round picks at best. That likely won’t be the case because teams reach for quarterbacks at the end of Round 1 but that’s how I have these guys graded.
If I had to pick one other guy out from this group that I think will become a successful NFL quarterback I would have to say Foles. I think he could be the wild card in this class.
Thomas Casale has covered the NFL Draft for Patriots.com and other web sites over the years. He currently writes for Sports Illustrated and CBS Sports. Follow Thomas on Twitter @thomascasale or e-mail him at [email protected].