There’s been a lot of hype about a possible economic meltdown, there have been man-made and natural disasters, there’s war after war and skirmish after skirmish. All over the world there is trouble brooding. Is it a coincidence that all this is happening at one, or is it a sign of things to come?
Actually, looking at statistics, it is not clear that the frequency or severity of natural disasters has increased at all.
This makes for a difficult questions to answer, as that the statistics on fatalities are dominated by the very rare, very large events. For example, the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami is something so extraordinary that it makes evaluating the statistics extremely difficult. And though the recent earthquakes in China and Pakistan though having been terribly destructive, we need only look back to the 1976 Tangshan earthquake for much greater damage, with almost a quarter of a million people killed. The same is true for another comparison, whereas the recent severe storm damage on Galveston Island of Texas was very bad, there were nearly 10,000 people killed on Galveston in 1900 by a similar hurricane.
Some people may believe that we have more and more destructive natural disaster today than we have had in our past, but if you look at that past, you will realize that the disasters of the past were just as deadly as they are today. For example, we have evidence of an earthquake as far back as about 1500 BC, which shook the Minoans of Akrotiri, between 1300 and 1200 BC, an earthquake hit the Mediterranean causing damage to the Cretan and Greek palaces of Troy, about 50 BC, the volcano Xitle erupted covering the city of Cuicuilco in Mexico with a population of 20,000, in 79 AD, the Vesuvius eruption destroyed Herculaneum and Pompeii, killing thousands without much warning (the cities were preserved under ashfall, providing us with a nearly complete picture), in AD 595 the Loma Caldera volcano erupted, June 7, 1692, and Port Royal, Jamaica was dropped into Kingston Harbor by a massive earthquake, January 26, 1700, an enormous tsunami washed over the coasts of Japan, and June 10, 1886, New Zealand’s Mount Tarawera erupted, spewing rocks, ash and boiling hot mud over the village of Te Wairoa, killing 150 people.
The bottom line is, there is no indication that natural disasters are increasing, when you look at the facts and realize the statistics are skewed by a few very rare, severe events.
Maybe it is only our awareness, and not frequency, of these events that’s increasing. Long ago they did not have the technology or the communication to record and measure these events. I can imagine than only the biggest of disasters were recorded for historical purposes.
Although many people also believe that wars have become increasingly frequent, even though extensive economic globalization and democratization over this period should have reduced appetites for war far below their current level, there are confounding factors at work, making this view clearly incomplete: at best.
To make a potentially long article short, though there are lots of rumors, there are no concrete indications that we are headed towards any Armageddon, Apocalypse or any other cataclysmic event. Though we should always keep our eyes, ears and mind open for possible clues of any disastrous events, and be prepared for any eventualities, there is no reason we should not live for today while planning for tomorrow.
One way or another tomorrow will come.
Written by: Tom Rertterbush
Tom Retterbush publishes several blogs, including www.conspiracywatch, addictsnotanonymous.com and hackerstudy.com.