It is my assessment that an attack will most likely occur within London during the summerOlympics of 2012.The high probability exists because of terrorist attempts at exploiting security measures in addition to historical trends of attacks within the UK and on previous Olympic Games. The high visibility of the games provides the stage for terrorist groups to conduct spectacular attacks to the international eye.
· 2008 Beijing Olympics: China’s Ministry of Public Security detained 45 individuals from the Turkistan Islamic Party with explosives, firearms, and jihadist literature in their attempts to kidnap foreign tourists, journalists, and athletes. · 1996 Atlanta Olympics: the bombing of Centennial Park resulted in 2 dead and 111 injured in attempts to cancel the games. · 1972 Munich Olympics: eight members of Black September, a Palestinian militant group, killed 12 in their attempts to kidnap Israeli athletes over political issues.
Additionally, it is also highly possible that protests may become disorderly according to historical cues. Anti-corporation, radical environmentalists and anti-government groups are expected to attend. Terrorists will attempt to utilize suicide bombings or a Mumbai style attack of small arms. It is assessed that reconnaissance of the games construction site by terrorist organizations and members can be facilitated due to the ease of transportation and movement around the outlining areas. It is unlikely but still possible for a maritime attack along the Thames, Portland Bay, and in Broxbourne to occur due to the newly created UK Maritime Security Center.
Terrorists’ devices have become smaller and simpler making it harder for police and security forces to identify suspicious bags and packages. Olympic security and metropolitan police implemented the 100% bag check in their efforts in combating a terrorist attack. However, terrorists will still have freedom of movement outside Olympic park, the outlining Olympic facilities outside of London, and within the transportation systems.
Even with the increase of security forces, and United Kingdom’s hiring of aprivate security contractor from the previous Athens games, the restriction of any plans or logistical efforts to facilitate an attack will be minimal.
A cyber attack would target the critical infrastructure network, ticket systems on the Olympic network, as well as the likelihood of disrupting the Metropolitan Police’s 55k closed circuit television security systems. Disrupting the CCTVs would enable freedom of movement among terrorist groups. According topress reports from the United Kingdom’s Domestic Security Service MI5, Britain has been the target of various daily cyber threats that derived from various states and terrorists.
· I assess that a number of critical national infrastructures are vulnerable to an attack with the heightened security being relocated to the games. I believe that with the cut in the United Kingdom’s domestic security budget and intelligence funding, the focus on the games would leave other critical infrastructures less protected. The Channel Tunnel’s previous lapse in its minimal security leaves concerns with the increase in transit over the course of the games. This was illustrated in an exploited plot uncovered in Pakistan to target the Channel Tunnel by Islamic extremists in 2006. · It is likely that key Olympic infrastructure and utilities would be targeted namely theprimary utilities corridor which contains all primary utilities within Olympic Park and outlining boundaries.
It is my assessment that it is unlikely but still possible for a nuclear, biological, chemical, or radiological attack because of the inexperience in deployment of this type of attack in the past.
Various terrorist organizations are more than likely to incubate from within the United Kingdom; endorsed and assisted from trans-national terrorist groups externally. Multiple British Islamist organizations have been identified as operating within the United Kingdom. Remnants of members associated with the banned Islamic Terrorist Organization al Muhajiroun, al Ghurabaa, andIslam4UK are still noticeable in the UK. These organizations have provided a non-violent political front that was utilized for terrorist activities. Within the UK, the town of Luton’s wave of immigration among Muslim Pakistani and Bangladeshi diasporas during the 20th Century has become a radical Islamist breeding ground.
– 11 Dec 2010 – Stockholm Bombing- Taimour Abdulwahab al-Abdaly lived in the Luton district for approximately 10years- member of the Finsbury mosque – 2 July 2008 Amar Makhlulif – was detained but released for Strasbourg Cathedral bombing plot and the Los Angeles Airport Millennium plot- member of the Finsbury mosque. – 5 January 2003 – Kamel Bourgass was arrested on a bio-terrorism plot made up of ricin poison in North London- member of the Finsbury mosque – 28 July 2001 – Djamel Beghal was arrested in the Emirates after confessing to a plot to attack the American embassy in Paris. – 11 Sept 2001 – co-conspirator of the attacks, Zacarias Moussaoui, radicalized at the Brixton mosque headed by Abu Hamza al-Masri – 22 Dec 2001- Shoe bomber- Richard Reid- British born attended a North London Brixton mosque headed by anti-American cleric Abu Hamza al-Masri – 13 Sept 2001 – Nizar ben Abdelaziz Trabelsi detained in Belgium for attempting to attack American soldiers stationed at the air base- member of the Finsbury mosque.
Scotland Yard driven Operation Crevice in 2007: five Al Mujajiroun militants were arrested on terrorism charges when Metropolitan Police found ammonium nitrate fertilizer and plans in their attempts to detonate a bomb in a shopping center, nightclub, and gas network.
· Al Muhajiroun has been operating within the United Kingdom since 1986. Together with various Islamic parties, such as Islam4UK, they are responsible for deploying militants to Tel Aviv that included a bombing of a Café in 2003- killing 3 and injuring 60.
Al-Qaeda’s (AQ) history of exploiting security vulnerabilities to conduct attacks provides the organization with a viable target of opportunity. On 7/7/05, an attack on the London transportation system came within 24hours of the Olympic committees’ announcement of the city’s selection for the 2012 Olympics by a cell based on AQ’s ideology. A similar cell attempted a similar attack that failed on 7/21. It still is possible that with the success of the 7/7 attack, AQ would carry out a similar operation on the transportation system during the games or on critical national infrastructures. An attack by AQ on a large scale would gain them global coverage of their ideology and their efforts in promoting Islamic extremism by use of violence. as well as increase AQ’s ability to challenge failed and failing states like Yemen, Iraq, Somalia, and Afghanistan.
-28 June 2009- Haymarket London, two car bombs were discovered
A significant number of United Kingdom citizens have publicly been reported travelling to Somalia to train and fight the insurgency alongside the Islamic militant organization Al-Shabaab against the Somali Transitional Federal Government (STFG). It is assessed that the latter returning United Kingdom citizens have the means, training, and intentions to carry out an attack. According to public reports, the Al-Shabaab organization has close ties with AQ in the Arabian Peninsula and AQ in the Maghreb. In the event of an attack from Al-Shabaab’s organization, it would promote their independence, globally, from the UN and the STFG.
I believe it is unlikely but still possible that a terror attack would originate from Northern Ireland and be deployed in the United Kingdom by Irish dissidents. This would not be the first time that the PIRA conducted a terrorist attack on the British isle. An attack from the PIRA or a splinter faction would project their political and religious motivation in their attempts to free Northern Ireland and develop further influence of the Catholic population in the north.
· Northern Ireland terrorist attacks, according to the Independent Monitoring Commission, estimated that the number of deployed explosive devices doubled and detonations quadrupled from the past six months.
It has been reported by high officials in MI5 that IRA splinter groups have access to various weapons, including an explosive known as Semtex, which have seen in previous attacks on Northern Ireland Security Forces.