As the smoke clears in the NFL from the Christmas weekend, a much clearer playoff picture emerges. While we still only have 4 teams decided in the AFC, 5 of the 6 spots in the NFC are filled. The big issue this weekend is determining which teams get byes in the first wild card round and who will fill the 3 remaining spots.
First, we’ll look at those 3 spots. The AFC has 2 openings. One of these is the AFC West Champion and one is the wild card. The AFC West championship is currently between Denver and Oakland. If Denver wins, they are in. If they tie, they need an Oakland loss or tie. Oakland will be rooting against the Broncos because a Bronco loss gives them the chance to win the division. Fortunately for fans, both games will be played at the same time, meaning that we won’t have a game with nothing on the line. The winner of the west will take the 4th seed and face the 5th seed (either Steelers or Ravens as shown below)
The AFC wild card spot is another story. The Cincinnati Bengals are 9-6 and four teams sit at 8-7 (the Broncos and Raiders as well as the Tennessee Titans and the New York Jets.) Cincinnati is in the best shape. As long as they don’t lose (that is, if they win or tie), then they lock the final spot. They can also get in even if they lose with a Jets loss and a loss from either Oakland or Denver. The rest of the teams need Cincinnati to lose. The Raiders, in addition to the Bengals loss, also need to win and have the Titans not win (lose or tie) or the Jets win. The Jets need to win to get in, as well as Cincinnati to lose, the Titans to lose or tie, and either Denver or Oakland to lose or tie. The Titans are in the worst shape of eligible teams needing a win, a Cincinnati loss, and either the Jets to win and Denver or Oakland to lose or a Jets loss and Oakland and Denver both win.
Confused yet? Well now we’ll talk about seeding. New England has clinched either 1st or 2nd seed. If they win or tie, they will be first seed with home field advantage through the playoffs. They can still clinch this spot if Baltimore and Pittsburgh both lose. Speaking of those two, they fall in an interesting situation. Either of them could finish as high as the 1st seed to as low as the fifth seed. Baltimore clinches their division with a win over Cincinnati this weekend. However, if they lose or tie and Pittsburgh beats Cleveland, Pittsburgh represents the AFC North. Of the three teams battling for the 1st seed, New England is in the best shape while Pittsburgh needs Baltimore and New England to stumble to reach first place.
The NFC paints a much clearer picture. The Packers have won the North and clinched the first seed. The 49ers have won the West and can secure the second see with a win or New Orleans not winning. Speaking of the Saints, they have the South locked up. They could take over the 2nd seed (and a first round bye) with a San Francisco loss and a win against the Panthers. The Lions and Falcons have both clinched wild card spots. The only spot up for grabs is the division title for the NFC East. That goes to the winner of the Giants and Cowboys. On the off chance that the game ends in a tie, the Giants advance and become the 4th seed.
With most of the spots locked in, here are my humble predictions for the way the playoffs will play out. Please note, these are only predictions and are not meant to offend anyone, it is just what my best guess is of what will happen.
In the wild card round, Denver will lose to Pittsburgh and Cincinnati will send the Texans home with their first playoff loss in franchise history (also, their only appearance). The Saints will beat the Falcons for the third time this season and the Detroit will find a way to get it done in a brutal battle against the Giants which costs them Matt Stafford for the rest of the year.
In the divisional round, the Steelers and Ravens will face off for the third time this season, with the Steelers getting by them for the first time this year. New England will thoroughly dominate Cincinnati. The 49ers will meet the Saints in San Francisco and the Saints will advance. The Lions will keep it close for a half, but eventually Aaron Rodgers will lead the Packers to the victory.
In the Conference Championships, the Patriots will get revenge on the Steelers for the loss earlier this year. The Saints will beat the Packers because of poor offensive line play.
In the Super Bowl, Tom Brady and Drew Brees face off and though Brady throws for 300+ yards and 4 TDs, Brees throws for 425 and 6 TDs to give the Saints their second title.