COMMENTARY | According to Google’s Senior Vice President in charge of Android, Andy Rubin, 3.7 million Android devices were activated over the weekend of Christmas and Christmas Eve. Even though more Apple devices were (arguably) activated over this time period, a Gartner report shows that more than half of the smartphones sold worldwide in the third quarter of 2011 were running Android, compared to only 15 percent for the iPhone.
It may be too soon to declare victory, though. Instead, perhaps we should ask: What would victory look like? And what would it look like if Android “lost,” instead of winning the smartphone race? How would we know?
The companies that make Android devices would be losing
Not in terms of putting out a ton of cheap Android handsets, but in terms of not being nearly as profitable as Apple and other, non-Android competitors. There aren’t really any of the latter right now (RIM is tanking and Nokia’s just getting started with Windows Phone 7), but as Geoff Duncan of Digital Trends points out, other reports show that Apple’s making two-thirds of the profit to be had in the entire smartphone market.
Between that and Apple’s alleged monopsony power — or the ability to buy up the entire stock of certain valuable smartphone components, which certainly isn’t hurt by having a lot of money on hand — the Cupertino giant is in a virtuous feedback loop, where it makes lots of money because it has the money to spend in order to make it. Is it really going to help companies like HTC to just add Beats Audio to their devices, when Apple can afford to invent things like Siri?
App developers would be choosing Apple over Android
Despite the Android Market having topped ten billion downloads during the holidays, according to mobile analytics company Flurry app developers are choosing iOS (and making more money on Apple’s platform) by a wide margin. As in, three times the number of new project starts and more than four times the revenue.
Apple device owners would be happier
Admittedly, that’s not something that’s easy to measure, plus it varies from person to person. I prefer Android, for instance, and many people (like those on contract-free wireless carriers) can’t afford an iPhone whether they want one or not. According to a ChangeWave survey, however, as of last June 70 percent of iOS device owners reported being “very satisfied” with their phone’s OS, compared to only 50 percent of Android device owners.
That, to me, is what it means to be on the losing platform: Not having the most common kind of smartphone, but having one that’s just not as good. Whether the wireless carriers — who get to heavily brand Android smartphones with logos and non-uninstallable crapware — like Android better or not.