COMMENTARY | With the New Hampshire primaries behind us and the South Carolina primaries coming up next, we find ourselves in a holding pattern: Mitt Romney is still the pack leader, Ron Paul, Jon Huntsman, Rick Perry, and Rick Santorum are hoping for a strong showing in South Carolina, and Newt Gingrich is hoping for a miracle. Nevertheless, it may not be who won, but how he won that actually matters most.
According to AP/the Washington Post, early polling indicated that Romney would win by at least 20 points in New Hampshire, compared to the 15 points he actually won by. Of those that voted for him, the vast majority felt that of all the Republican nominees running for the Presidency he is the most likely to beat Barrack Obama. Recent polling has suggested that a Romney/Obama race would be a dead heat, with the margin of victory being within the polls’ margin of error. The economy was also a considerable factor for Romney voters. Romney’s “pink slip” faux pas seemed to have a negligible effect in the minds of New Hampshire voters; although, many feels the actual weight of the gaffe have yet to be seen. Romney won 49 percent of solid Republican voters, according to exit polling. This — combined with a 29 percent share of independent voters, as compared to Ron Paul’s 32 percent share — shows a lack of confidence among independent voters toward Romney, a problem he must overcome if he is to be the Republican candidate for president.
Ron Paul’s second-place finish suggests a possible Romney/Paul match-up for the Republican nomination. At 23 percent of the vote cast, Ron Paul still commands an important sector of possible Republican voters. More important, he is favorable among independents, lending credence to the possibility of a third party run in November. With the Republican Party fragmented between Romney and Paul, this may give the President a free pass in his bid for re-election.
Huntsman’s third-place finish keeps him in the race. New Hampshire was Huntsman’s last chance; with a poor showing in Iowa last week, and a lack of campaign organization in upcoming primaries and a shortage of cash looming, New Hampshire was Jon Huntsman’s Hail Mary pass. However, Tuesday’s results may be postponing the inevitable: the end of the Huntsman’s candidacy. Huntsman’s favorable showing does put him in a strong position to run in 2016; but, this is tempered by the fact that moderate Republicans favor Romney over Huntsman 39 to 26 percent.
South Carolina is starting to look like the end of the line for Newt Gingrich, whose negative ad campaign failed to turn away Romney voters, and Rick Perry, who did not participate in campaigning in New Hampshire. With both men falling to break 20% in the South Carolina polls, it would be difficult to imagine a continuation of their campaigns, considering the financial and structural flaws both campaigns are suffering from. The first major contest will be the Florida primary at the end of the month with 50 delegates on the line, in which only registered Republicans can participate. Early polling shows Romney, Paul, and Santorum leading in this race. It is more than likely that the party of seven will become a three-man race by time Super Tuesday arrives.
This primary season, which promised to be explosive, is starting to look like it will go out with a whimper, and in a season in which momentum meant everything, that promises trouble down the line for the future nominee. The world’s eyes are now on South Carolina and if Gingrich can get that miracle he has been asking for.