COMMENTARY | Presidential candidate — and until this past week, national poll frontrunner — Mitt Romney has turned down an invitation to appear at the Labor Day forum in South Carolina. Organized by the influential Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC) and supported by the “Keep Your Powder Dry Caucus,” the event is designed to have presidential candidates “engage in a thoughtful, substantive discussion of their stances on critical issues facing our country.” Romney appears to be the only major candidate that will not attend.
Citing scheduling conflicts, Romney’s camp said, according to CNN, that the former Massachusetts governor was already scheduled to spend the day in New Hampshire. But DeMint has withheld his endorsement this election cycle (he endorsed Romney in his failed 2008 presidential bid) and Romney faired poorly in the state’s last primary (he finished fourth) after spending considerable amounts of both time and money. Given the circumstances, Romney, possibly sensing that an endorsement from “the kingmaker” DeMint is not forthcoming, might feel that South Carolina would be an unnecessary distraction and a losing cause this time around as well. This, despite having polled better than the Labor Day forum organizer Jim himself in a Public Policy Polling survey in early June.
But that was then…
That particular poll was conducted before Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN) surged in the national polls after the first Republican presidential debate in New Hampshire on June 13. It was taken long before she won the Ames Straw Poll in Iowa in mid-August. That same day, Romney finished a disappointing seventh in the straw poll, even behind Texas governor Rick Perry. Perry, who not only was a write-in candidate and had announced his candidacy hours before the straw poll, also quickly took a double-digit lead in a national poll conducted just two days later by Rasmussen Reports.
Both Bachmann and Perry are evangelical Christians, a demographic that is more in line with the electorate of South Carolina and one that has trouble considering Mormonism a Christian sect. Romney, who is a Mormon, found getting past his religion in the first primary state of the South in 2008 problematic. It might be so again.
Although bypassing the state and concentrating on Florida, another early southern primary, might be a winning strategy for team Romney to capture the GOP nomination, it has not been for any other Republican presidential candidate in the past three decades.
Rick Perry, who now appears to be Romney’s chief competitor for the GOP nomination, is one of at least five top Republicans in the 2012 race attending the Labor Day forum. Bachmann, who just finished a small bus tour of South Carolina last week, has accepted an invitation, as has former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich, Atlanta businessman Herman Cain, and Texas Congressman Ron Paul.
A couple of undeclared presidential contenders and possible attendees — former Alaska governor Sarah Palin and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani — have been invited. However, it is uncertain as yet if either will participate. Palin has a tea party event in Iowa to attend on September 3, but it is as yet unknown if her schedule will allow for a trip to South Carolina.
The forum will consists of a panel of three moderators — Sen. DeMint, Iowa Rep. Steve King, and Robert George, a conservative legal scholar and the founder of the American Principles Project — asking questions of the candidates in 20-minute segments.