The constant shuffling of front runners and also-rans in the 2012 Presidential race among Republicans is the best new comedy show of the season. Some might still think of it as a comedy-mystery like “Monk” but it is precisely the lack of a mystery that is responsible for yucks. Bachman? Perry? Cain? Supporting players all this time around. If Mitt Romney does not walk away with the GOP nomination for President, it will be the biggest upset since that little Division II team took the mighty Michigan Wolverines to school. There is one thing and only one thing you need to know about Republican politics at the highest level: the next guy in line always prevails. Well, almost always.
Forget about things like Mormonism, cigarette smoking and Niggerhead Ranch. The only issue that matters at all is the position of number two delegate winner or the person who ran a losing campaign as Vice-President nominee. Exceptions prevail only in cases of perceived electability. Therefore, since Sarah Palin is seen as unelectable everywhere except inside her own bathroom, the 2012 Republican nominee will be the guy who was runner-up to John McCain in terms of delegates won. Since that guy was Mitt Romney, well, you don’t need Monk to figure things out.
The Republican Party will do everything they can to avoid being unpredictable or surprising. When it was Bob Dole’s turn at bat, he was given the nomination. Some might claim: well, yeah, but wouldn’t it have been Dan Quayle’s turn in 1996? Yes, except that unelectability trumps everything else and nobody outside the Far Right that was much less powerful back then believed for even a moment that Quayle could beat Clinton. John McCain was beaten by Bush in 2000 so the next time he got to run at the top of the ticket, despite the fact that he was somehow perceived as a maverick who had not in actuality voted with Bush 90% of the time over eight years, McCain won.
Well, that sets up the stage for Mitt Romney. Is the living Ken Doll really electable? Probably not. He has zero charisma, is about as intellectually gifted as Palin or Bachman and that Mormon thing is going to bite him in the butt in the general election. But he seems electable enough to play it safe. One thing you can bet will not happen without some kind of massively unexpected slip-up that causes the string coming out of Mitt Romney’s back to somehow flub and make him say something like “I love Obama” is Herman Cain winning the nomination. Even if Cain comes in second in 2012, what you will see is a rare moment in time when the Republicans do not give the nomination to the next guy in line. Herman Cain has two problems when it comes to winning the Republican nomination. The first is obvious to anyone who has ever just traveled through Mississippi without even stopping. The second is that Cain is simply too unpredictable himself. In other words: he’s not electable enough for the Republicans to stick to their predictable playbook.