Mitt Romney will be the next president of the United States. To win the presidency he or she first has to win the Republican nomination which Romney will win rather easily. An emotional attachment to another republican candidate or a lukewarm feeling towards Romney are complete non-factors. Romney is the only candidate by far that has viewed this entire election process as a marathon race rather than a series of sprints. To win the nomination and to win the presidency against President Obama, is going to take a total effort in organization, money, and presenting ones self to be competent enough.
Romney is the total package for the Republican party. No other candidate is even close.
Looking at the field, Michelle Bachman has no chance and never has. Ron Paul has a small but loyal base, but he has zero chance. Rick Perry will never be taken seriously to be honest, and he seems to be more silly than presidential anymore. Rick Santorum has put all his powder in Iowa, and when he leaves there, he will be over. More on Iowa in a moment. Huntsman is very credible but he does not have Romney’s money or organization, so he is shooting for New Hampshire to be his saving grace. You can not win by trying to win in one place and then raise money and build an organization from there.. That is a sprinter mentality and does not give you a complete game plan. It says you have only enough money and organization for one fight.
Newt Gingrich is a very effective communicator and he resonates with people who are disgusted with the way things are going and he resonates with people with common sense. At times, he can actually stir your emotions with his forceful leadership style. However, he has many negatives from the years to his name, and the stirring moments from strong leadership that he exhibits are all he has. A few moments but that hardly means he is even close to having the full team effort ability. Also, as dynamic as he can be, Romney shows strength and leadership also, just in a more subtle style, so Gingrich has not out performed Romney in the debates in all reality. He has a few more forceful moments is all.
It comes down to this. Each candidate besides Romney has a strength that might standout, but they all have weaknesses in terms of money and organization and long range planning.. Romney has everything they have in platform issues, but not one other candidate is even remotely close to the complete organizational structure that Romney has built. His team is complete, and it is the only team that can compete with President Obama. There is no dispute on this.
Gingrich and Perry failed to even get on the ballot for Virginia. Whether or not Virginia is technically important is not the issue. It just shows a complete lack of competence for a team running for the presidency. Did they just find out last week what they needed to do to get on the ballot? As dismal of a job President Obama has done as president, they will have a well oiled campaign and as the saying goes, if you show up to a gunfight with a knife, you will lose. Romney is the only campaign that is on par with President Obama.
President Obama would make short order of each republican candidate. Gingrich would undoubtedly be banking on a strong debate performance, which I believe he would beat Obama in, but the debates are not going to be the deciding factor. The totality of the campaign will be the defining factor.
To all the Republican voters that say they would never vote for Romney for president should just be more realistic and say they prefer Obama to Romney. Romney is the only Republican candidate who can possibly compete on even footing.
As far as the Iowa Caucus’s goes it is more of a popularity contest than having any significant value as far as delegates count goes. Iowa also tends to vote on who shakes their hands the most, so it would seem that Ron Paul and Rick Santorum will do well, even though they will have zero shot at winning the nomination. Iowa has never and will never vote on who has the best chance to beat the the other sides candidate. The Iowa Caucus exists only because it is first. Other than that it has no advantages for a strong candidate in their own right. It is good for Iowa economically, but other than a name recognition party, it is a useless endeavor.
Romney will win the Republican nomination and do so handily. President Obama has lost the independent vote, and I don’t see how he would win Florida and without the independents and Florida, it will be a very hard election for Obama to win, and he clearly can not run on the results of his record. If you strip all the emotional feelings out of this, and look strictly at the facts, Romney is the only republican who can go up against Obama credibly and if the Republican base gets strongly behind Romney after the republican convention, then it is very probable that Romney wins the presidency.