The Denver Broncos will be a better team this year. They were devastated by injuries last preseason and lost their best defensive player, Elvis Dumervil, for all of 2010. Elvis and some others are back plus Von Miller and other new players will make this year much better than last.
There is no doubt that Josh McDaniels was an offensive minded coach. John Fox is a defensive minded coach. The defense has been upgraded and the schemes will be better. The game planning and blitz packages will be improved. Defense will be better from top to bottom. This will help the offense, as a good defense always does. More turnovers setting up short fields for the offense. Fewer long drives given up by the D, allowing the offense more opportunities with the ball. Not falling behind and forcing the offense to have to play catch up and throw the ball as much as last year. This has been Coach Fox’s MO. He knows defense wins championships.
The running game personnel has NOT been improved. Hopefully the offensive line will open more and bigger holes because they won’t be pass blocking as much, will get into a rhythm and sustain long drives and wear down the defenses week after week. The questions to be answered will be red zone performance and third down conversions, along with not turning the ball over. These are the keys to successful football teams and always will be. 1. Stop the other team. 2. Don’t turn the ball over.
So, there is the quarterback question/controversy. Coach Fox has a decision to make. Who will best fit and perform in the scheme he is developing and the game plan he wants to implement. Who can execute the run oriented, ball control offense to compliment the staunch defense he will attempt to put on the field.
A quick check of the stats shows that Kyle Orton averages about 6.5 yards per passing attempt over his career and has improved each year he has been in the league from a rookie season low of 5.08 yards. Rookie Tim Tebow last year averaged right at 8 yards per attempt in his 3 game audition as a starter. Orton averages 1.5 rush attempts per game for a 2.6 yard average. Tebow ran 31 times for 199 yards in his 3 starts, or 10 per game at 6.5 yards per carry. Tebow may have been the most effective rusher on the team last year. Noting that there haven’t been upgrades to the running backs, that may be true again this year.
The decision has been made to go with Orton as the starter. Trying to understand how this decision was derived may be the most perplexing. Orton was 5-18 in his last 23 starts, similar to Fox’s 2-14 record in his final season with Carolina. For background, Fox split up his QB duties between 4 year veteran Matt Moore, now with Miami instead of Kyle Orton, and rookie first round pick Jimmy Claussen in that fateful 2010 season at Carolina. Supposedly you would be safer with a more experienced quarterback running your offense as Fox tried to begin last season and now again this season. This would make sense with a quality defense AND sound running game. A more than serviceable game manager could make an 8-8 or even 10-6 season possible. With their weak early season schedule a 3-0 start is possible regardless of the starter (although Orton did get blown out at home by the Raiders 59-14 last year). So Fox goes with experience to try to have a decent season and the Broncos play it safe.
Realizing that Fox wants to run the ball more and supposedly knowing the Broncos won’t contend for the Super Bowl this year you have to wonder if another decision wouldn’t make more long term, and possibly short term, sense. Watching game tape of last year’s Broncos performance would show a more balanced running and passing game the final 3 games. There was momentum building and more points being scored. Tebow with a full season, especially with soft games in weeks 2 and 3 to learn and grow, could blossom into a dynamic force in the league and generate momentum for his team. Timing and decision making would improve with each game and experience would make the young QB better. If all fails for Tebow he could go 5-11, if all goes right, 11-5 with excitement and growing pains for the future either way. With Orton a free agent when this season ends the Broncos need to realize IF he is successful he will cost too much to keep and if he fails, going say 8-8, they won’t want to pay him and they wasted a year of Tebow’s development time. Orton could be 3-1 after four games this year. He won’t beat Green Bay. Tebow could be 1-3 or 4-0 after four games, but in this system he will be closer to a championship caliber QB than Orton either way.
And after all is said and done, isn’t a championship really the goal?