COMMENTARY | Kim Jong Il is dead. CNN announced on Dec. 18 that Kim Jong Il died on Dec. 17 at 8:30 a.m.
We have an issue, though: We cannot say if this is good or bad. This is not a Saddam Hussein situation, where not even his own people massively supported him. This is not another Osama Bin Laden, where the entire known world wanted him gone, aside from a few other world enemies. This is the death of a man running an extremely unstable country, in the most volatile of positions available.
In the not so distant past, North Korea has “tested” missiles. It has “accidentally” fired missiles into populated South Korean areas. This was a dangerous country and regime to begin with. No longer is it dangerous: now it is an outright powderkeg, with no way of knowing how it will explode.
I say it will explode on purpose. This can only fall out in one of three ways:
War
Kim Jong Un is as dangerous, if not more so, than his father was. Here’s the issue: He is a rather young man, and needs to prove himself. The easiest way to do that is to launch some sort of attack. This is easily the worst-case scenario for a very simple reason; they are not going to attack China. That leaves Jong Un with two targets, those being South Korea and Japan. Should they attack either, that directly puts United States service members in danger. If our men and women are attacked, we will go to war, it’s as simple as that.
Should Jong Un attack either location, then we are all going to wish that Reagan’s SDI was a reality. With mutually assured destruction of nuclear war, should Jong Un decide to launch nuclear weaponry, we might just see the planet-wide cleansing supposedly prophesied in the Mayan calendar.
On a less mystical note, it was announced that he died of a massive heart attack. This could easily turn into a “the spies did it” type of message being broadcast across North Korea. Should this happen, and worse, if it’s true in any way whatsoever (even if the first aid giver was South Korean) all this does is give Jong Un ammunition to fire with.
Peace
Kim Jong Un is a wild card. As CNN reporters have said on their broadcast “Should we Google Kim Jong Un, we all have the same amount of information on him.” Just as stated before, Jong Un must prove himself to the world. The best way to do that is with mass reform leading to an overall peace. Kim Jon Un is not the cold war-era leader his father was. Or at least he does not have to be.
Should he choose peace, this could mean an all-new alliance between the Koreas, as well as a massive upgrade in the way of life for both side of the demilitarized zone. Peace coming out of the funeral of his father is the best we can hope for Kum Jong Un. It was announced by North Korea that he was so exhausted due to physical fatigue of all he has had to follow. Let us, as a world, pray that Kim Jong Un decides to not follow the same path as his father.
Stalemate
China holds North Korea, America hold South Korea. Neither side can help the other. The regime will collapse and rebuild. Until this has been done, we must all hope as a world populace that no one tries anything. Picture the fall of the USSR, with small sects bickering amongst themselves for who owes whom what, where borders are placed, and so forth. Now make all of that conflict take place in a much smaller area. This was a military state, which means there are military leaders. They will struggle with themselves for power. That is an unavoidable truth.
No matter which of these three obvious paths — immediate war, swift peace, or temporary stalemate — is taken, the next two weeks (maybe more) will decide the fate of the known world. No matter which path is chosen, or if some unknown wild card is thrown in, the world cannot be the same. All we can do as a general populace is to hang on tight, go along for the ride, and pray to whomever it is you may or may not pray to.