So it’s week 16 of the Fantasy Football season and you’re either in or out of the playoffs. As with nearly every NFL season it has been filled with more parity than any other fantasy sport. Hopefully you were like the Broncos and made the right personnel move(i.e. Tim Tebow) at the right time to save your season. First I’d like to address a little debate over whether to end fantasy football playoffs either week 16 or week 17 of the NFL season. My preference: week 17. Having the fantasy football playoffs end this week gives fantasy team owners another important thing to consider. That is, do I use another high draft pick on a position I already am good at because that guy(i.e. Aaron Rodgers, Jordy Nelson, Jermichael Finley) might not play much if at all? I believe if you are truly a good fantasy football team manager you will account for this and, most importantly, win.
We saw Tim Tebow meet the buzz-saw that is the Patriots with Tom Brady and company. Before the game, my logical side made me remember the 45-10 thumping that the Broncos received from the Lions earlier in the year. The Broncos just do not matchup well against teams that can really move the ball like the Lions and Patriots. In the end though, Tebow still had one of his better fantasy days that he has had as a prowhich is what I was expecting. Going forward, Tebow projects well in week 16 and again projects as a low-end QB1, in my opinion. Demaryius Thomas continues to get a ton of targets and projects well for the rest of 2011 and makes for a nice dynasty player for 2012 and beyond. I am seeing the improvement that I need to see from Tebow. The most concerning things about Tebow for Tebow-owners is John Fox, the head coach. He continues to play a conservative, under-the-center type style that stunts Tebow’s value and, to a lesser extent, Tebow’s growth/learning. With that said I still like Tebow going forward and expect him to improve in 2012 as both a NFL QB and a fantasy QB1. Eric Decker does not project well for the time being but may emerge next year as a WR2/Flex type option should Fox and the Broncos decide to open it up some. The future is bright for Tebow.
C.J. Spiller is a player I mentioned weeks before he got his chance before Fred Jackson went down. Spiller was a blip on the fantasy radar as mostly a good handcuff to Jackson, especially in PPR formats. Spiller was a beast in week 15, having his best fantasy day as a pro against a very good run defense in the Dolphins. He is even more valuable in PPR formats as a good pass catcher who even lines up at WR on occasion. Spiller is a top-15 play this week but his 2012 value is up in the air as it’s not sure whether the current coaching staff will be there or whether he will relinquish the starting RB job back to Jackson again. For 2011, Spiller’s value seems to be very good even though he has his up and down weeks.
Chris Ivory had a respectable day in week 15 going 18-74-0 on the ground filling in for Mark Ingram. Ivory is one of those under-the-radar type players that doesn’t seem to get enough credit. He seems like he might just maybe one big run away from taking primary back duties away for good. The Saints have an aweful matchup in week 16 for RBs when they play the Falcons so it’s hard to like any of the Saints’ RBs this week. Finally, it’s hard for me to get too optimistic about any of the Saints’ backs simply because they spread the carries out among their RBs that it rarely creates any high-end possibilities for anything other than their receiving RB Darren Sproles.
Jake Locker has put up some good numbers in relief of Matt Hasselbeck this year. The Titans have invested a very high draft pick in him and so you have to like him going forward into 2012 with WR Kenny Britt, if he’s healthy next year. I’m a little more than leary of QBs who have been known to have accuracy issues which is the knock on Locker. Still, he will have playmakers like Chris Johnson and Kenny Britt next year to help sugarcoat any growing pains he may go through. It’s still unclear who will be starting for the Titans in week 16 but what’s more important is to not forget Locker in 2012 when ranking(pre-draft) fantasy QBs. Locker seems like he has high ceiling possibilities to succeed in 2012.
Jason Pierre-Paul is easily the breakout IDP(Individual Defensive Player) of the year in my opinion. He also appears to be the premiere IDP(at least at DL) to get going into 2012 that weight tackles and sacks heavy. The rookie, Ryan Kerrigan started the year good but has faded and makes his value questionable going into 2012. Jerod Mayo is starting to register old Mayo-like numbers and makes for a good pickup in those leagues where he was dropped because of injury concerns earlier in the year. Rolando McClain seems to have eluded his legal issues and has produced nicely here at the end of the year, he looks like a low-end LB1 for IDP leagues in 2012. Finally, Lawrence Timmons has started to produce LB1 numbers again after being moved back to ILB, this after his miserable numbers as an OLB, you still want to temper expectations for Timmons as the Steelers continue to shuffle LBs around to fill in for injured team-mates.
Good luck in week 16!