Meltdown. It is such an overused word these days when talking about the BCS. What if we have just one undefeated team, who is number 2? Meltdown! What if there are no undefeated teams? Meltdown! What if Houston is the only undefeated team? Meltdown! Every year we hear about all about how the BCS would hate to see this and that happen and how there would be chaos if such and such a team loses.
I am reminded of the scene in Crocodile Dundee where Mick is confronted with a switchblade yielding mugger and scoffs, “That’s not a knife.” Pulling out his Bowie knife he declares, “THAT’s a knife.” All of the scenarios in the BCS so far seem no worse than the situation in 2004 when LSU and USC managed to split the National Championship under the BCS system. The BCS survived that one. When it is all said and done no matter how much chaos people think there will be, there will still be a number one and a number two. Those two teams will play, people will grumble that someone was left out, and then it will be over. In a year or two, most will have forgotten the controversy and have moved on, just like 2004. Doesn’t sound like much of a meltdown to me.
And then we have this last weekend. Number two Oklahoma State loses. Number four Oregon loses. Ditto for Oklahoma State, Oklahoma and Clemson. Four of the top seven contenders go down. In it’s wake the weekend leaves us with three teams in the same division of the same conference likely to take the top three spots in the BCS standings: LSU, Alabama, and Arkansas. It sets the stage for what really could be the BCS’s worst nightmare.
Full disclosure here: I’ve always preferred the current system to a full blown playoff in college football, perhaps for the very reason that this past weekend really wouldn’t have mattered as much under a playoff system. The beauty of college football is the importance of every regular season game. The regular season IS the playoff. But that’s neither here nor there, so I won’t jump on my soapbox. But it’s from this perspective that I tend to cringe whenever some writer or talking head uses phrases like “BCS’s worst nightmare.” I’m sorry guys, the BCS knows there’s going to be controversy over who is number 2 and someone ‘deserving’ will be left out. They can deal with that. I’m curious how they would deal with the following scenario.
Let’s say that Arkansas beats LSU. It creates a three way tie for first place in the West Division of the Southeast Conference. That’s assuming, of course, that Alabama beats Auburn (something we should know by now is not a given). Most likely, Alabama will move to number 1, and ultimately the team with the highest BCS ranking will go to the conference championship. On the strength of their computer ratings, I would expect to see LSU drop no further than third in the computer rankings. That is no small detail.
Of course, everyone will be debating who should play Alabama in the national championship. Should it be a rematch with Arkansas, or with LSU? Should it be Virginia Tech or Houston? But there’s another thing to consider here: Georgia’s been playing some pretty good football lately. Suppose Georgia beats Alabama in the SEC championship game, now what?
Two very plausible upsets. Arkansas beats LSU, Georgia beats Alabama. Don’t think it could happen? Have you already forgotten yesterday’s games?
Houston, we have a meltdown. All of a sudden when the dust settles, the top two teams in the BCS standings are Arkansas and LSU. If you think people were howling before, what about now? Neither team won their division, let alone their conference, and they’re playing for the National Championship? If you think there’s been controversy before, wait until that happens.
And yet, two teams not winning their division yet playing in the National Championship in a rematch while undefeated Houston and ACC champion Virginia Tech miss out does not constitute a meltdown. There will be controversy, people will cry for change, but the game will be played. Or will it?
Once again, we’re forgetting Georgia here. No, I do not expect Georgia to fit into the top two or to figure into the conversation about if they should play for the National Championship game. Sure, they would have an argument, like a lot of other teams, and probably a stronger argument than most. But the point here is not so much about whether Georgia should play for the Nationals Championship. The point is, Georgia is an automatic qualifier to the BCS bowls by winning the Southeast Conference. Only two teams from any one conference can play in BCS bowls. Maybe I’m missing something but as I understand it the BCS selection process doesn’t cover this scenario. One of three things has to happen: 1) Three SEC teams play in BCS bowls. 2) The number 2 team in the BCS cannot play in the National Championship due to being the third team out of the SEC and is thus ineligble. 3) SEC Champion Georgia gets left out of the BCS.
Each of those conclusions is a violation of some rule of the BCS. In the end, the BCS would have to make some kind of rule change at the end of the season. Now we’re in unchartered territory. Now we have the BCS having to make a decision real time because the rules didn’t take into consideration this possibility.
That, my friends, is a meltdown.