Week 1 proved to be even more unpredictable than usual with several underdogs pulling off upsets, or simply playing much better than had been anticipated. Cam Newton managed to give Arizona a bit of a scare, while the favored New York Giants lost big on the road to the Redskins. I’m hoping week 2 brings us a bit more predictability, but its important to remember that it’s still very early in the season and upsets are much more common this time of year. However, I believe the games I’ve picked this week look to be far more promising considering they all involve serious Super Bowl contenders taking on teams that are just looking to rebuild and regroup. I’ve added a new feature this week that is intended to convey my overall confidence in each pick’s ability to cover. The more “$” you see, the more confident I am.
My progress so far this season:
Straight up: 2-1
ATS: 1-1-1
9/18/2011
Green Bay @ Carolina
Current Spread: Green Bay -10
This game should be interesting as I believe the horrible Carolina Panthers will be incredibly lucky if they manage to keep this game within three touchdowns. Carolina looked very strong against Arizona this past Sunday, but the Cardinals are in rebuild mode and are in the weakest division in the NFC. Green Bay is going to prove to be a much tougher opponent as I believe they are poised to dominate the Panthers on defense, offense and special teams. The Packers appear to be hitting on all cylinders and, after their big win last Thursday against New Orleans, will be heading into this road game with confidence and momentum. This may prove to be one of the biggest mismatches of the whole season as Green Bay’s wicked defense is going to rough up the Panther’s offensive line all game long and will likely render their running game useless. This will force Newton to rely on his arm more often than he’d probably like to in hopes of finding holes in the Packers’ robust secondary. I don’t think that will work out so well for him and see Cam having a somewhat poor game in this matchup, likely throwing at least one or two interceptions. He may have had a great week against a flimsy Arizona defense, but the Packers are going to be Newton’s first true test and I don’t see it going very smoothly for him. I see Cam being forced to second guess every last throw he makes in this matchup. Whatever confidence he gained from his performance last week will have been full eroded by halftime. If you can’t put up obscene numbers, you just can’t keep up with Aaron Rodgers. Last week, the Pack put up over 40 points against Drew Brees and the Saints. They’re going to need far less than that this week to cover against Carolina. The Panthers will be lucky to even break into double digits here. I absolutely love the Packers in this one and look forward to seeing just how ugly this one gets.
My Pick?
Take Green Bay against the spread
$$
9/18/2011
Seattle @ Pittsburgh
Current Spread: Pittsburgh -14
This game is another instance of David vs. Goliath. These two teams last met in 2007, with Pittsburgh shutting down the visiting Seahawks 21-0. A lot has changed on both teams since then, but I see a very similar outcome occurring in this game nonetheless. In fact, Pittsburgh will probably end up winning this one by an even wider margin. Tarvaris Jackson is still working hard to get settled into the Seattle offensive system and will be nowhere near as productive as Big Ben playing at home in front of the rabid Steeler faithful who are hungry for their first win. Seattle’s patchwork offensive line will again prove unable to provide adequate protection and Tarvaris will likely struggle to secure any sort of consistent offensive production. Pittsburgh’s brutal defense will force the Seahawks into many three-and-outs, leaving Seattle’s offense on the sidelines for the majority of the game. This will inevitably provide Pittsburgh’s potent offense with too many opportunities and too much time. Historically, Seattle has been terrible on the road the past few years and Heinz Field is one of the toughest places to pull out a win as a road team. I realize that many people may consider this spread a bit high considering how well the Ravens shut down the Steelers in opening week, limiting them to just one touchdown. However, I believe this spread is actually a great bargain if it stays around -14 to -15. Pittsburgh will be looking to make a statement here and they’re going to do it on the backs of the far inferior Seattle Seahawks. Seattle is an appalling 0-4 ATS in their last four games as a road dog of 10.5 points or more and are only 2-5 ATS in their last seven games. However, Pittsburgh is 4-0 ATS as a favorite and 6-1 ATS when playing an opponent with a losing record. They have covered the spread in five of the six games last played at Heinz Field.
Big Ben Mad.
Big Ben Want WIN!
And he will.
My Pick?
Take Pittsburgh against the spread
$$
9/18/2011
Baltimore @ Tennessee
Current Spread: Baltimore -6
The Baltimore Ravens have quietly put together one of the most well balanced teams in the NFC and are looking to make the deep run into the playoffs that has eluded them the past few seasons and finally sneak past arch-rival Pittsburgh, whom they comfortably defeated at home this past week. Joe Flacco is one of the league’s most exciting and capable young quarterbacks and already has the talent and maturity needed to duke it out with big-time guns like Roethlisberger, Rodgers and Brady. This will be a unique match as current superstar Flacco will be taking on veteran QB Matt Hasselbeck, who was recently traded by Seattle after failing to receive the contract terms he requested. Matt is most certainly not the same cavalier gunslinger that he was back when he nearly led Seattle to a championship in 2005. He can still put together a great game under pressure as his incredible victory against New Orleans proved in the first round of the playoffs last year. But Matt is getting older and has suffered a myriad of injuries over the span of his career which means he poses almost zero running threat and can be very vulnerable in the pocket. This is the same guy that had to sit out part of a game last year because he ran the ball into the end zone, without anyone even touching him. The guy is so fragile he gets hurt when he runs. He’s still learning the offensive system in Tennessee and the Ravens are going to blitz the Titans’ offensive line endlessly in hopes of constantly forcing Hasselbeck into passing under pressure. Considering Baltimore’s brutal defense, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that Matt could get injured in this game which could end his career. The Ravens defense is fearsome and Matt is on his last legs as an NFL starter. This would put rookie Jake Locker at the helm far before he’s anywhere near ready to go. The Ravens are simply much better and far more well-rounded than the Tennessee. I see great value in this spread as this will most likely prove a decisive victory, with Baltimore besting Tennessee by at least 10-14 points. If you’re going to bet just one spread this week, this is likely to be your best option.
My Pick?
Take Baltimore against the spread
$$$