“Degree of difficulty” can have a major impact on the outcome of an NFL football team’s season. For some teams, the season can come down to the final couple of games and a preferable schedule can enhance their chances of making a team eligible for post-season play.
Surprisingly enough, two of the worse teams in football, the Carolina Panthers and the Buffalo Bills, have the most difficult schedules record-wise. The Panthers play against teams with a .555 winning percentage while the Bills faces off against teams with a collective .535 record. After that, there’s log jam for 3rd between 7 different teams at .520.
Here’s a list of some of the top contenders in the league and what they’ll have to face in the upcoming season.
New York Jets (opponent’s record- .520)
September
11th Dallas (Sunday night game)
18th Jacksonville
25th Oakland
The New York Jets have the luxury of playing two tough teams at home. Dallas will be much improved as Tony Romo returns from injury and Jacksonville is a test for any team in the league. The Jets are a far superior team to that of Oakland, but the Raiders have played the Jets tough out west before and can’t be overlooked with Darren McFadden as their star running back.
October
9th New England
17th Miami
23th San Diego
30th Bye
Even though the Jets play some of the tougher teams in the league, their schedule favors them early in playing 4 out of their first 6 games at home. Miami always gives New York problems but have declined even with the acquisition of Reggie Bush. The Chargers and Philip Rivers will be a major test but the Jets have home field and always play San Diego well. As for New England, the Patriots always get the edge at home with number 12 running the team.
November
6th Buffalo
13th New England
17th Denver
27th Buffalo
Suprisingly, Denver might be the most difficult test of the month. The Jets will be coming off of a tough home game against the Patriots 4 days earlier. The altitude and weather might have an effect along with lack of recovery time in between games. Whether it’s Kyle Orton or Tim Tebow, Denver won’t be a cakewalk.
December
4th Washington
11th Kansas City
18th Philadelphia
24th Giants
New York will face it’s 2nd toughest test of the season against the Philadelphia Eagles at Philly. That should be a highly contested game with all of the talent that Philadelphia has. They come right back as the home team against the Giants in the Meadowlands. Jets get the edge because they’re the better team and there will be a majority of Jets fans in the stands. (Jets home game)
January
1st Miami
New Year’s Day is an unusual time to be playing football but the Jets are just the better team here. A lot depends on what they have to play for.
Prediction- 13-3 – Jets have come close 2 years in a row and will be a hungry team.
Indianapolis Colts (.520)
September
11th Houston
18th Cleveland
25th Pittsburgh
The Indianapolis Colts should be recovered from injuries and the Super Bowl will be played on their home field. Houston has given Indy a tough time on the road in the past. Two winnable home games but not an easy month for the Colts
October
3th Tampa Bay
9th Kansas City
16th Cincinnati
23th New Orleans
30th Tennessee
The Colts should have an easy time of it in their first 3 games. They catch a break and play K.C. at home. Playing New Orleans in the Superdome and facing the Titans on the road will possibly lead to a split.
November
6th Atlanta
13th Jacksonville
20th Bye
27th Carolina
This will be a refreshing month as the Colts play at home for the entire month. Atlanta and QB Matt Ryan will pose the toughest test.
December
4th New England
11th Baltimore
18th Tennessee
22th Houston
This could be a make or break month for the Colts as they face 3 tough teams on the road. The scheduling for this time of the year is less than desirable.
January
1th Jacksonville
The Colts are the better team but they’ll be on the road in hostile territory. Expect this game to have some importance.
Prediction- 11-5
Indianapolis should be healthier. Age plays a factor, but the early part of the schedule looks fairly smooth. They could possibly only have 4 losses and they’ll be a factor in the playoffs. Manning wants more than 1 championship on his resume.
Green Bay Packers ( .508)
September
8th New Orleans
18th Carolina
25th Chicago
Not an easy way for the defending Super Bowl Champions to open up the season. Home field advantage will give the Pack the advantage against New Orleans while the Packers will be tested at Soldier Field against the Bears.
October
2nd Denver
9th Atlanta
16th St. Louis
23th Minnesota
30th Bye
The Packers are most likely looking at a 3-1 October. The Falcons will be the test as the remaining games are all winnable and in their favor.
November
6th San Diego
14th Minnesota
20th Tampa Bay
24th Detroit
San Diego and Phillip Rivers will be a major test and the Lions are occasionally tough on Thanksgiving Day. Expect Detroit to keep that game close.
December
4th Giants
11th Oakland
18th Kansas City
25th Chicago
The Packers and the Giants will have a defensive battle at the Meadowlands. The Giants get the slightest of edges and Chicago can’t be overlooked at home.
January
1st Detroit
It depends on what they’re playing for but this should be a Packers victory.
Prediction- 12-4 (Packers will be looking to win back to back titles)
We know that teams like the New England Patriots and Philadelphia Eagles will be at the top of the league regardless of the strength of their opponent. Here’s a top level team that’s playing below .500 teams.
Baltimore Ravens (.457)
Considering their record last season, Baltimore was given the 2nd most favorable schedule.
September
11th Pittsburgh
18th Tennessee
25th St. Louis
Any one of these games can pose a threat to the Ravens. Their schedule might be easier but the first month isn’t.
October
2nd Jets
16th Houston
24th Jacksonville
30th Arizona
Rex Ryan returns to Baltimore and this game will be a defensive dogfight. Jacksonville will also be a tough matchup.
November
6th Pittsburgh
13th Seattle
20th Cincinnati
24th San Fransisco
Pittsburgh and Baltimore always play low scoring close games. The rest of the month should be easy if they don’t let their guard down against Seattle and a Thanksgiving Day battle with the 49ers.
December
4th Cleveland
11th Indianapolis
18th San Diego
24th Cleveland
The Ravens get lucky in facing Peyton Manning on their home field. Manning and the Colts offense could have trouble. I don’t like the matchup out west against a high powered San Diego Chargers offense.
January
1st Cincinnati
The Ravens start off the new year by facing a team that they should beat in a blowout.
Prediction- 11-5
Baltimore always finishes with a good record, Their schedule isn’t as easy as it looks. The Ravens will be back in the playoffs, playing in a deciding game by a field goal that will determine the outcome of their season.
Some other teams like the Pittsburgh Steelers (.473) who made it to the Super Bowl, were given a favorable schedule. The Giants (.492), Falcons (.492), and Bears (.488) all had exceptional records last season and were lucky enough to receive easier schedules.
As I mentioned earlier, the Panthers (.555), Bills (.535), Lions (.520), Broncos (.520), and Dolphins (.516), didn’t have good seasons in 2010-2011 and weren’t so lucky when the schedules came out.
Summary
Strength of schedule is important in determining a teams record in the outcome of the season but other aspects like timing, home field advantage, and the importance of the game shouldn’t be overlooked. Most of the time, everything balances out in the end. Check back for our updates and predictions on the remaining NFL teams and who their schedules might play out.