Each team in the West is so evenly matched that a loss here and there could actually leave any team on top; except the Broncos. Here are my….
2011 AFC West Predictions
San Diego Chargers (10-6)
Philip Rivers is becoming an elite QB in the NFL. He has thrown for 4,000+ yards each of the last 3 seasons and has never thrown more than 15 picks in 7 seasons. With a 97.2 career rating and 63.7% completion rate, 2011 should be another big year.
Antonio Gates caught 50 passes and 10 TD in 10 games last season and is always a threat to dominate a game. Receivers Malcolm Floyd and Vincent Jackson are both 6’5″ targets with 17 yards per catch averages in their careers. Second year back Ryan Mathews (678 yards, 7 TD), will have to produce to help take pressure off the passing game; not much depth behind him with Darren Sproles in New Orleans.
San Diego’s defense was no.1 overall, versus the pass, and no.4 against the run in 2010. If additions MLB Takeo Spikes (1,239 career tackles), and Safety Bob Sanders produce as capable, this defense will actually improve. CB Quentin Jammer and S Eric Weddle round out the top pass defense.
The only way San Diego doesn’t win the West is if they beat themselves. They have the most talent in the division so it’s theirs to lose.
Oakland Raiders (9-7)
The Raiders went 6-0 versus the division in 2010 but most likely won’t do that in 2011. They will have to step up against the other teams on their schedule to get their wins. Jason Campbell will have to start all 16 games under center if the Raiders want to win. He too has never thrown more than 15 INT in his 5 seasons and has a 60% completion rate for his career.
Darren McFadden finally proved in his third season that he can be the runner on offense. His 1,157 yards, 5.2 avg. and 10 total TD showed why he was the no.4 pick in the 2008 NFL Draft. Backfield mate Michael Bush is a big 245 pound bruising runner and had 655 yards and 8 TD in 2010. If these guys stay healthy it should help Campbell have a great year.
Somebody is going to have to come up big at receiver however. Former no.7 pick Darius Heyward-Bey has the talent but just 35 receptions and 2 TD in his first 2 years. Jacoby Ford showed great flashes as a rookie in 2010 but is just 5’8″. Chaz Schilens or Louis Murphy is going to have to step up, so will newcomer TE Kevin Boss (35 receptions 5 TD for the Giants in 2010).
The Raiders defense was no.2 versus the pass and no.11 overall in 2010. Nnamdi Asomugha may be gone but the pass defense shouldn’t suffer too much. Stanford Routt (6’1″) and Chris Johnson (6’1″) are some solid cover corners. Oakland also drafted a 4.2 40-yard rush 6’1″ CB in DeMarcus Van Dyke as well as 6′ Chimdi Chekwa in the 3rd and 4th rounds respectively. Throw in the 6’1″ Michael Huff at safety and this is a big and physical secondary to be reckoned with.
The D-line is impressive as well but must improve their no.29 ranking from last season. Richard Seymour and Tommy Kelly are the leaders of a line that combined for 24.5 sacks. That’s a decent number but will need LB Kamerion Wimbley to get more than the zero sacks he had last season. In 5 seasons Wimbley has 35.5 sacks, so 10 in 2011 aren’t out of the question.
Oakland is a pretty good team that is ready to leave the losing years behind them. If Jason Campbell can prove he should start; sky is the limits for the Silver and Black.
Kansas City Chiefs (7-9)
The Chiefs went 10-6 last season and won the division but it was a fluke. Matt Cassel is a good QB (27 TD 7 INT in 2010), but only has one receiver in Dwayne Bowe. Bowe is a true no.1 but can’t do it by himself. He should surpass his 1,162 yards and 15 TD of 2010, but still needs some support from someone.
Thomas Jones is a 10,000 yard runner in his 11 seasons, but at 33 years-old may see his play drop to just 3rd down and passing plays. Jamaal Charles will need to prove his 2,500 yards and 16 TD from the past 2 seasons is no fluke, and that he can be the feature back in K.C.
The Chiefs defense ranked no.14 but I don’t see how. Glen Dorsey was supposed to be a beast on the line, but in 3 seasons has just 4 sacks; that will need to change in 2011. The Chiefs get a solid veteran in DT Kelly Gregg to maybe draw some double teams and open holes for Dorsey to get some sacks. Tamba Hali (14.5 sacks in ’10) has become the leader of this defense with his great play and 41 sacks in 5 seasons.
Kansas City is good, just not good enough. They will be competitive but need to find another receiver to help them out.
Denver Broncos (3-13)
Three games may be a stretch for the Broncos in 2011. Kyle Orton is a good QB but with all the Tim Tebow drama, he may have his confidence shaken. Plus, with no receivers, Orton has no targets. Brandon Lloyd stepped up last season with 77 receptions, 1,448 yards, and 11 TD, but just 7 receptions and 2 TD the previous 3 seasons.
Knowshon Moreno has yet to prove why he was a 1st round draft pick 2 seasons ago; and the defense stinks. The Broncos defense ranked dead last in 2010 and no reason to believe that will change in 2011. Definitely rebuild time in Denver.