It certainly doesn’t look like the most promising way to head into the NFL season, but like it or not it is kick-off time for the Giants on Sunday, and they have sixteen games to play. The offseason offers little optimism – first the lockout, then the losses of Steve Smith and Kevin Boss to free agency, and Eli Manning not throwing any touchdowns during a preseason showing that left many questions for a team that ended last season with many questions. Osi Umenyiora causing havoc with his contract grumblings and defensive players dropping like flies highlighted the defensive side of the ball. So it looks like the Giants are up against it this year, which may in fact be the silver-lining in all of the perceived chaos.
One thing is for certain, Tom Coughlin and the Giants will not wallow in self-pity and mail in the season. This is an organization with a tremendous amount of pride, and Coughlin doesn’t want to lose his job. They also have healthy players with a lot of pride and determination who will not let the season get out of hand. Of course the pride stuff is all intangible, the true reasons to believe the Giants have a chance this year is their opponents in the first ten weeks of the season.
Nothing has me more optimistic about the Giants more than starting the season against the Redskins. I am resigned to the fact that the Giants shouldn’t expect blowouts or dominate wins every week. This team won’t be explosive, but it can still be successful. This will truly be a season of just trying to get wins, stay healthy and churn forward. It would be nice to make a statement against the dysfunctional Redskins at FedEX Field to start the season, but what is more important is to get the win, and the Giants should win this game on talent alone. Now if they can beat the ‘Skins on the road to start the season, they should be able to beat them at home in December. Okay, so there are two wins, two wins in the conference, and two wins in the division, and that is something to start with.
The Giants host the up and coming St. Louis Rams on Monday Night Football to end week two NFL action. For some reason the Giants suck during primetime and the Rams are getting better, but this is clearly a game on the schedule the Giants should win. A win here could be a big boost, and a loss could be devastating, so let’s say they win this game, okay?
Week three presents a huge challenge, and being 2-0 would make it much better for the team and its fans. Yes, week three at the Linc against the hated “dream team” that is the Eagles. Tough divisional game on the road, I will cede this game to the Eagles, but that would leave the Giants at 2-1. It won’t be simple after the loss travelling to Arizona, but the opponent should be inferior enough, and when that is over the Giants get back-to-back home games against Seattle and Buffalo. That should give them a three game winning streak to get that Eagle loss out of their minds, and also give them a 5-1 record heading into a bye.
I think a 5-1 record could be bad for them, because it will bring unwanted attention to a team that normally likes to remain below the radar, but because the wins will be coming against inferior competition, it should be taken with a grain of salt. Five wins is halfway to 10 by the way, and although it didn’t get it done last year, I believe ten will be enough this year to get to the playoffs.
If Coughlin can keep the team focused and hungry during the bye, the Giants come back with another winnable game in week eight – another home game against another struggling team, the Dolphins. They should head to Foxboro with a 6-1 record and will probably lose to the Patriots. I’ll take a 6-2 record at the midway point of the season. What is important here is that the Giants had better be 6-2 after their first eight, because the scheduling gods were not kind to the G-Men for their final eight.
They will have to travel from an assumed beating from Tom Brady and company and head all the way across the country to face the 49ers. This is another must win game. No excuses for travel and jetlag, they must beat the weaker opponents. When they come back from San Francisco, they will be heading into a brutal stretch of games against probably the three best teams in the NFC. It starts with a Sunday night (hate those prime time games) affair against the Eagles at home, then a Monday night game (did I mention I hate those prime time games) the following week in New Orleans, and finally back home to face the Packers – nothing like trying to stop the high octane offenses of Vick, Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers in consecutive weeks. The tough thing here is that the Giants have to find a way to win one of these games.
If they can win one of these games they have a very good chance to win 10 or many even 11 games, if they lose all three, they will be hurting. If they win one or more of these games, they deserve to be talked with as one of the playoff teams, if they loss them all, they will be hard pressed to be taken seriously in the playoffs even if they can figure away to get there.
So let’s suppose they win one of those games… that makes would make the Giants’ record 8-4 heading down the home stretch. They begin that stretch with another prime time game, a Sunday night matchup against the much loathed Dallas Cowboys. I really believe the Giants are better than the Cowboys, but for the sake of argument, I will give this game to the Cowboys. That drops the record to 8-5 with only three games left. A win in this game would be huge, but the loss will not be soul crushing.
After the Dallas trip, the Giants should get another win over the Redskins to boost their record to 9-5. And that would bring them to a December 24 matchup against Rex Ryan and the Jets. Of course no Giants fans will be allowed at the game by Ryan (lol), so this will truly be an away game… but anyway there are a couple of ways to look at this matchup. A win by the Giants in this game would be huge on many levels. It could essentially lock up a playoff berth; it would be a huge victory emotionally as well to win the battle of New York. If you talk to Jets fans, they will be 14-0 at this point and won’t have much to play for, so it may give the Giants a chance to get a gift. Of course, Rex probably will not want to lose to the Giants and will play the game like it is the Super Bowl, which will backfire on him later in the playoffs. So I will say right now the Jets win, because it is a home game for the Gag me Green.
So the season will come down to a Happy New Year conclusion on January 1 when the Giants get revenge on Tony Romo and the Cowboys and beat them for the 10th victory of the season.
So there you have it, the key will be just beating the teams that they are better than… the Redskins twice, the four teams in the NFC West, Buffalo and Miami, as well as the Cowboys at home. That is nine wins, so they will have to steal a game from the Cowboys on the road, or a victory in one of the Philadelphia matchups, a home win against Green Bay or a win on the road against the Patriots, Saints or Jets.
A quick look at the schedules, I predict the Eagles will win 12 games and Dallas nine games. Green Bay should win the North with 13 or 14 wins, and Detroit could get to 10 wins. The NFC South should go to Atlanta or New Orleans with 11 wins (Atlanta if you twist my arm). The NFC West could be anyone, but only one team is making the playoffs from this division. That means the Giants will be battling with teams like the Lions, maybe the Bears, maybe the Cowboys, and either the Falcons or Saints for the two wildcard games. I like their chances.
By my count the Giants should finish with an 8-4 record in the NFC and a 3-3 record in the NFC East. It may not win them the division, but it should get them the wild card. And that ain’t all bad going in to this season with so much turmoil.