Jason’s Picks: UFC 143

by on March 7th, 2015
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Para leer la traducción en español, oprimir aquí. (To read the Spanish translation, click here).

The MMA predictive model ‘s accuracy for UFC on FOX 2 in Chicago, IL was 2 out of 3 correct, by no means perfect but nonetheless acceptable. Remember, I am still in the early stages of building the model, and it may take up to a year to gather enough data to find stable predictive patterns.

Thus far, the model has accurately predicted 9 out of 13 fight outcomes, for an overall year-to-date accuracy of 69%. I will stay with the same decision tree technique, CHAID (Chi Square Automatic Interaction Detector) for UFC 143 .

The model’s predictions for UFC 143 are below:

Nick Diaz vs. Carlos Condit: Diaz

Roy Nelson vs. Fabricio Werdum : Werdum

Josh Koscheck vs. Mike Pierce : Koscheck

Renan Barao vs. Scott Jorgensen : Barao

Ed Herman vs. Clifford Starks : Herman

Dustin Poirier vs. Max Holloway : Poirier

Alex Caceres vs. Edwin Figueroa : Figueroa

Matt Brown vs. Chris Cope : Brown

Rafael Natal vs. Michael Kuiper: Natal

Dan Stittgen vs. Stephen Thompson : Thompson

Editor’s Note: This is the fourth in a series of fight predictions by guest columnist Jason Noriega. Jason works as an analyst at a U.S. National Laboratory. He has a keen interest in predictive modeling, and lectures around the United States. Jason also participates in predictive modeling competitions and has placed in the top 10% in a number of them using various machine learning algorithms.

The predictive model developed by Jason Noriega for Jason’s Picks is the copyrighted intellectual property of Jason Noriega, Nery Castillo-McIntyre, and Artes Marciales Mixtas en Español.


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