Para leer la traducción en español, oprimir aquí. (To read the Spanish translation, click here).
The MMA predictive model ‘s accuracy for UFC on FOX 2 in Chicago, IL was 2 out of 3 correct, by no means perfect but nonetheless acceptable. Remember, I am still in the early stages of building the model, and it may take up to a year to gather enough data to find stable predictive patterns.
Thus far, the model has accurately predicted 9 out of 13 fight outcomes, for an overall year-to-date accuracy of 69%. I will stay with the same decision tree technique, CHAID (Chi Square Automatic Interaction Detector) for UFC 143 .
The model’s predictions for UFC 143 are below:
Nick Diaz vs. Carlos Condit: Diaz
Roy Nelson vs. Fabricio Werdum : Werdum
Josh Koscheck vs. Mike Pierce : Koscheck
Renan Barao vs. Scott Jorgensen : Barao
Ed Herman vs. Clifford Starks : Herman
Dustin Poirier vs. Max Holloway : Poirier
Alex Caceres vs. Edwin Figueroa : Figueroa
Matt Brown vs. Chris Cope : Brown
Rafael Natal vs. Michael Kuiper: Natal
Dan Stittgen vs. Stephen Thompson : Thompson
Editor’s Note: This is the fourth in a series of fight predictions by guest columnist Jason Noriega. Jason works as an analyst at a U.S. National Laboratory. He has a keen interest in predictive modeling, and lectures around the United States. Jason also participates in predictive modeling competitions and has placed in the top 10% in a number of them using various machine learning algorithms.
The predictive model developed by Jason Noriega for Jason’s Picks is the copyrighted intellectual property of Jason Noriega, Nery Castillo-McIntyre, and Artes Marciales Mixtas en Español.