COMMENTARY | According to MSNBC, the Iranian government has warned the United States not to send an aircraft carrier into the Persian Gulf again and has emphasized that it will not repeat what it regards as a warning.
The implication is that if an American carrier battle group enters the Persian Gulf, which is considered international waters, the Iranians will attack it. This threat takes place after the Iranians conducted naval exercises in the Persian Gulf, culminating in the test firing of ballistic missiles that the images of which were later, according to Fox News, photo shopped to make the test seem more impressive than they really were. The Iranians have also threatened to close the Straits of Hormuz, which link the Persian Gulf with the Sea of Oman and through which much of the world’s oil supply passes.
The official position of the United States is that Iran is engaged in bluster to cover up its deteriorating position, thanks to economic sanctions that have started to take hold. Writing in P.J. Media, analyst Michael Leeden suggests that Iran may be in an economic death spiral, with its currency collapsing.
This may be, but a wounded predator is especially vicious and may try something more than issuing threats to try to cover up its economic woes and try to rally its restless people against an exterior foe. That the United States Navy and Air Force could annihilate the Iranian Navy and Air Force in short order may not have entered into calculations.
The Obama administration seems to have taken a nonchalant view of the situation. But it needs to take sterner measures to ensure that threats to impede the navigation of international waters do not go unanswered.
In short order, Iran’s bluff must be called and a carrier battle group must enter the Persian Gulf and conduct its own maneuvers, along with Arab gulf allies. The force, along with whatever Air Force assets can be deployed, should be ready for any eventuality.
If Iran fails to carry out its threat, then so much the better; it will be proven to be a paper tiger. However if it does attempt to harm the battle group, it’s air and naval assets need to be destroyed with overwhelming force. Furthermore, Iran’s nuclear and missiles assets should be taken out. If Iran provides the casus belli, the United States can safely respond, secure in the knowledge that it is waging a justum bellum, a just war against a threat to world peace and freedom.
Sources: Iran warns US carrier to stay out of Persian Gulf, MSNBC, Jan 3, 2012
Iran Missile Drill Results Exaggerated, Images Photoshopped Previously, Fox News, Jan 3, 2012
Iran in Convulsion (the death spiral continues), Michael Ledeen, P.J. Media, Jan 2, 2011