The Giants avoided arbitration with Ryan Vogelsong by signing him to a 2 year deal worth a reported $8.3 million, with a club option for a third year.
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2012/01/11/SPDB1MOFUI.DTL&tsp=1
I’m writing this as a knee-jerk reaction, so let me first preface whatever follows with this quick disclaimer: I love Ryan Vogelsong. I even love (read: “like”) him on Facebook.
I remember seeing Vogelsong pitch in relief at Pacific Bell Park way back in 2000 (when AT&T Park was known as Pacific Bell), and I got to see him pitch again this year. It was full circle for both of us – well, more for him than for me, given how his career was not only in the toilet but on its way to being flushed out into the bay. Hopefully you get the point, but if not, this is it: Vogelsong in 2011 was heartwarming. Additionally, he was a very, very good pitcher:
3.7 WAR (Baseball-Reference.com), 2.71 ERA, 7.0 K/9, 15 HR in 179.2 IP.
Ok, so why the disclaimer? Well, if I’m trying to figure out how much money to give to Vogey in a multi-year deal, I’ve first got to put his 2011 season in context. As any Giants fan knows, Vogelsong pulled his career out of the depths of Hell in 2011, which means that, before 2011, Vogelsong put up numbers that were, well…Hellish. In fact, his career WAR before 2011 was -3.9, which made him a worse than replacement-level pitcher. His one season with more than 100 IP was 2004 in Pittsburgh, and he registered a 6.50 ERA in 133 IP with a 4.5 BB/9 ratio and 22 HRs allowed. Those numbers would curl even the Devil’s pointy tail.
In a nutshell, Vogelsong’s career statistics support the impression of him being a one-hit wonder. Pitchers usually peak in their late 20s, and Vogelsong will turn 35 in July. At this age in a pitcher’s career, unless their name is Maddux or Glavine or Moyer, I have to wonder if this is the year he loses a crucial mile or two off his fastball. I also have to wonder if, after a full season of hitting against him, opposing hitters in the National League will again struggle to score runs off Vogelsong in 2012. These questions color my answer to the question Brian Sabean answered in the affirmative: can Vogelsong continue to pitch well through 2013?
If it isn’t clear already, I have my doubts about Vogelsong’s value moving forward. I think most reasonable fans would. Even if I were optimistic about his sustainability, I would think that committing over $8 million to him to avoid arbitration is excessive. As outlined above, Vogelsong has pitched two seasons of 100+ IP: one terrible, one terrific. Admittedly, I’m a stranger to MLB’s arbitration processes, but a multi-year deal carrying a $4 million AAV after one good season coming at an age in which many pitchers begin rapidly declining seems like a deal seriously favoring the player, not the team. Given that Sabean has made a media ruckus about the Giants’ inability to sign any more players (including Carlos Beltran, who fled to the reigning World Series champions), and given their failures (so far) to extend the contracts of two pitchers just now hitting their sky-high peaks (Cain and Lincecum), the allocation of so many, err…”precious”, “scarce”…dollars to Vogelsong is, quite frankly, unsettling. Given Brian Sabean’s predilection for players in their mid-30s, it’s not all that surprising. Still, it’s unsettling.
(Again: why didn’t he re-sign Carlos Beltran?)
Unsettling. Why? Well, the pessimist in me is teaming up with the knee-jerker in me to gang up on the paranoid in me to ask this question: if the Giants were confident at all in their ability to extend the contracts of Tim Lincecum or, more urgently, Matt Cain, would they dole out $4 million in 2012 to their 4th starter? Slamming down this kind of money in front of Vogelsong speaks to a win-now philosophy, which I like. But it also smells like a contingency plan, one that is being installed now in the event the Giants are unable to extend Cain before the season starts, which I really, really dislike.
I want Ryan Vogelsong to earn his salary. We Giants fans are already saddled with the burden of watching a high-priced 30-something go out there and give us pennies on the dollar. Truth be told, Vogelsong doesn’t have to replicate 2011 in order to be worth his 2012 and 2013 salary. Shooting from the hip, an ERA between 3.50-4.00 and 200 IP is more than reasonable for a $4 million AAV. But mark my words: if Matt Cain signs with the Yankees in 2013 for $4 million more than the Giants could offer him, Vogelsong’s contract will spell the end of Brian Sabean’s tenure in San Francisco.