On the surface, it doesn’t make much sense why Vegas loves the San Francisco 49ers so much. The 49ers over/under was 7.5 wins. Last year, they went 6-10. This year, they have almost the same exact personnel and a new coaching staff that had just four weeks to implement their plays. It would’ve made much more sense if the 49ers over/under was 6.5 considering the reasons above. Yet, at 7.5, my guess is the vast majority of people would bet on the under. I thought maybe Vegas simply made a mistake.
But then came this week’s game against the Cowboys. Dallas started the week a 3-point favorite in San Francisco. At first glance, that spread seemed a bit small, but I figured as more people bet on Dallas, the line would grow to at least 5. According to WalterFootball.com, of the first 7,000 bets, 91 percent were placed on the Cowboys, yet the line didn’t go up. This usually indicates that Vegas is confident that 49ers will beat the spread.
So I combined the two oddities and I’ve come to a conclusion: Vegas is extremely confident in the 49ers this year. If Vegas is betting on the 49ers beating the Cowboys and winning at least 8 games, then they must think the public severely underrates the 49ers. If the public is right, Vegas is bound to lose a bundle of money.
So I suppose we should ask why Vegas is so confident in the 49ers.
Maybe it believes the 49ers are set for a good season because they won 6 of their final 11 games last year.
Maybe it believes that Alex Smith, who had the NFC West best QB Rating last year at 82, is vastly underrated and will have a solid season.
Maybe it believes that Jim Harbaugh and his Co. will be the next great coaching staff in the NFL.
Maybe it believes the addition of Braylon Edwards, a proven No. 1 receiver, will make this offense more dynamic.
Maybe it believes the offensive line, with a year of growing pains from rookies Mike Iupati and Anthony Davis in the books, will meet its potential and be one of the best groups in the league.
Maybe it believes that the additions of Donte Whitner and Carlos Rogers are very underrated and will propel the 49ers defense into the elite category.
Maybe it’s a combination of all of them, or maybe it’s the belief that this roster was already extremely talented and was going to make the playoffs with anybody other than Mike Singletary coaching them.
Whatever it is, it seems that Vegas likes the 49ers to win 8 games, and if that’s the case, then it makes perfect sense that the 49ers need to beat Dallas on Sunday.
Looking at the schedule, the 49ers will almost assuredly drop their games to the Eagles, Steelers and Ravens. I see a pair of probable losses in Detroit and Washington, and two home games where they don’t matchup well against the Buccaneers and the Giants. That’s seven losses already, and that’s not counting three division road games, where they’re bound to lose at least one. So, in many ways, this is a defining game for the 49ers season and the House in Las Vegas.
With a win, the 49ers would be poised for an 8-win season and first place in the NFC West. With a loss, San Fran would be on the inside track to another losing and another playoff-less campaign.