November 4th and 5th are two special days in horse racing. They are the Breeders’ Cup World Championships days to be held at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. There will be 15 championship races held over two days and the purses total $26 million.
The Breeders’ Cup is full of glamour, stories and television coverage. Plenty of celebrities will be on hand and some of those own horses that compete in a Breeders’ Cup race. Beyond the big names, the huge purses and all the glory, the people that mean the most in horse racing, the horse player, will be at Churchill Downs and other facilities throughout the world wagering on the events.
When it comes Breeders’ Cup time the excitement level of players elevates greatly. The excitement starts a few weeks prior to the Breeders’ Cup and long before the first field of horses explodes from the starting gate players are planning to make wagers. This is the time when so many players make wagering mistakes, but they are mistakes that can easily be avoided.
Mistake one. Listening to public handicappers make predictions long before the Breeders’ Cup. It was once said that public handicappers make the odds and the public confirms them. This is often true because the wagering public gets hung up on opinions thrown at them time and time again. For several weeks the public handicappers will talk about the obvious favorites to the point where it seems there are no other horses running. The safest opinion is the one most obvious and in reality the public handicappers are not telling anyone anything they don’t already know.
Mistake two. Getting hung up on the Breeders’ Cup Classic. The last race of the Breeders’ Cup with the largest purse gets the most attention because it usually means the most in terms of prestige and for Horse of the Year honors. Paying too much attention to the Classic means other races receive less of the player’s attention and that could be costly.
Mistake three. Purchasing too much information before the Breeders’ Cup. Many players will purchase all of the special “systems” and “methods” just for the Breeders’ Cup. This is a waste of money because there are no foolproof systems in horse racing and information purchased too far in advance may be much too old when the big days come.
Mistake four. Making decisions before Breeders’ Cup day. It is senseless to make a wagering decision before the actual day of racing. The top reason for waiting until race day is that the odds may not warrant a wager on a pre-determined selection. Other major considerations are weather, track condition and scratches.
Mistake Five. Don’t let history determine strategy or actual selections. The Breeders’ Cup has been around for more than a quarter century but its history has unfolded it all kinds of weather and at a large number of North America tracks. Furthermore, when the Breeders’ Cup began there were only seven races and that number has more than doubled. The biggest reason for ignoring Breeders’ Cup history is that few, very few, horses ever run in the Breeders’ Cup more than once.
So, for those of you who intend on “playing the horses” on Breeders’ Cup day have fun and minimize your mistakes. The fewer mistakes the more likely a profit.