COMMENTARY | The Obama reelection camp is in good spirits of late. In fact, President Obama himself seems to think that his chances of being reelected are even better now than they were previously. CNN reported Friday that at a political fundraiser in Washington, D. C., on Thursday, Sept. 15, the president told the gathering of supporters that things were not as bleak as many seemed to think.
“Now, I know that over the last couple of months,” he told his audience, “there have been Democrats who voiced concerns and nervousness about, well, in this kind of economy, isn’t this just – aren’t these just huge headwinds in terms of your reelection? Here’s one thing I know for certain: The odds of me being reelected are much higher than the odds of me being elected in the first place.”
Whether he was talking about the fact that a black president had never been elected or his trailing in the polls early on in the Democratic presidential campaign or even the fact that he was up against one of the best organized political machines in the nation in Hillary Clinton’s organization, Obama may have had a point. Getting the Democratic nomination and getting elected president might have been a bit more difficult than actually defending the office as an incumbent, albeit a heavily beleaguered one being assailed from the Left and the Right on various policies. Still, there is nothing as damaging to his chances as the troubled economy and the inability of said economy to generate a promising number of jobs.
But he might be heartened by the seeming inability for the Republicans to actually generate a credible 2012 presidential candidate as well. Although polls had indicated that President Obama faced stiff resistance from his Republican adversaries, where many of them placed either ahead of him or within only a few points of his lead in head-to-head match-up polls. But the recent MSNBC/Politico and CNN/Tea Party Express debates seemed to have offered the nation a vetting of the potential Republican candidates that may have slowed the momentum that had been gathering to replace the man in the Oval Office.
Rasmussen Reports released several head-to-head polls following the CNN/Tea Party debate in Tampa, Florida, on September 12, where the GOP candidates gathered for what appeared to be a pack-like attack on the leading candidate, Gov. Rick Perry of Texas. But as the various candidates vie for a lead in the polls going into the primary season, they might be opening up gaps in resumes and political failings that could tilt an election in favor of the guy they are all wanting to defeat.
According to one of the polls, Obama leads Minnesota congressman Michele Bachmann by 13 points, possibly the result of her latest gaffe debacle over a vaccine story. She was behind the president by only four points in August.
Another head-to-head showed the GOP frontrunner, Perry, also trailing the president. Gov. Perry, who enjoyed a three-point lead in a similar poll released at the beginning of September, was shown to have fallen behind by seven points.
Still, all is not favorable, which undoubtedly will act as a leavening agent to the president’s optimism. Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, the early GOP frontrunner that slipped into a far second-place position after Gov. Perry entered the race, led in his most recent head-to-head Rasmussen poll: 43 percent to 40 percent. He had trailed Obama by four points three weeks previously.
Regardless, the president at one time trailed in the polls to then Sen. Hillary Clinton in the race for the Democratic nomination. He also trailed at times against Sen. John McCain in the 2008 presidential race. And although he is expected to offer words of encouragement to those backers shelling out $35,800 per couple at the fundraiser, he could also be absolutely correct about his odds of reelection.