COMMENTARY | A Gallup Poll revealed Thursday shows a marked drop in enthusiasm for voting by Democrats and Democrat-leaning independents. The poll shows 45 percent of respondents report being enthusiastic about voting as opposed to 44 percent who are not.
This contrasts to 58 percent of Republican and Republican-leaning voters who are enthusiastic about voting. That is about the same as it was in the 2004 election cycle and higher than at most times during the 2008 cycle.
According to the chart provided by Gallup, Democratic enthusiasm for voting was as high as 79 percent during the 2008 cycle and did not go below 57 percent. This was due in large part to huge majorities in certain demographic groups (African Americans, college students, etc.) who supported candidate Barack Obama. Republican enthusiasm peaked at 65 percent in the 2008 cycle.
The new poll was taken 14 months before the election, however Gallup suggests that the disparity between Democratic vs. Republican enthusiasm for voting indicates discontent among the former with the current president. This is fraught with irony. The very man who inspired Democratic enthusiasm in 2008 is causing the opposite as 2012 approaches. What a difference nearly four years makes.
The reasons for the relative lack of enthusiasm on the part of Democrats for voting are clear. The economic malaise has continued unabated. President Obama’s own favorability number ranges from the high 30s to the low 40s in most polls, according to the Real Clear Politics average. Obama’s attempt to gen up enthusiasm with a combative, campaign-style speaking tour defending his jobs bill has so far fallen flat.
The Gallup numbers clearly suggest Obama is in peril for losing reelection. Most reelection campaigns are referendums on the performance of the person seeking reelection rather than a comparison between two candidates, such as occurred in 2008. Thus far the president has been found wanting, even by some of his base.
Can Obama turn things around? Of course he can. The economy could start turning around. The Republicans could nominate someone who turns out to be unacceptable to most of the electorate. But the time for the former to take place before attitudes about the president’s job performance settle in is rapidly running out. And it is hard to imagine anyone who is likely to win the GOP nomination will turn out to be worse in the eyes of most voters than the current president.
Source: Democrats Dispirited About Voting in 2012, Lydia Saad, Gallup Poll, Sept 29, 2011
Obama Job Approval, Real Clear Politics