Mariners GM Jack Z is a closed door negotiator so it can be hard to pinpoint where the Mariners will look next; though often that aim has fallen onto his former ballclub, the Milwaukee Brewers. This time baseball rumors insinuate that Seattle is a possible landing ground for Prince Fielder this 2011 offseason. Fielder’s agent, Scott Boras, has made it known that offers under $20 million/season are likely not going to seal the deal. In hoping and dreaming that the Mariners could be World Series competitive by 2014 with Prince Fielder let’s take a look at the World Series winners top regular season performances and their payroll commitments since 2000.
(For those not familiar with the statistic WAR; it stands for Wins Above Replacement. Summarized this statistic asks the question, “if Player Z gets hurt how many wins towards the full season would be lost by replacing Player Z on the roster”?)
Since 2000 only three MLB World Series winning teams have seen batters post a WAR greater than 6.4 during the regular season (the number that Fielder put in 2009) while only two pitchers have done so; the names:
2008 – Philadelphia Phillies – Chase Utley – WAR 6.6
2006 – St. Louis Cardinals – Albert Pujols – WAR 8.3
2004 – Boston Red Sox – Curt Schilling – WAR 6.4
2001 – Arizona Diamondbacks – Luis Gonzalez – WAR 7.6, Curt Schilling – WAR 7.3, and Randy Johnson – WAR 8.4
This means that only four of the last eleven World Series winners (36%) have needed the type of season Prince Fielder provides to win their trophy. All of the above performances came at a respectable price vs. total team payroll as seen below:
2008 – Philadelphia Phillies – Chase Utley – 12% of Team Payroll
2006 – St. Louis Cardinals – Albert Pujols – 16% of Team Payroll
2004 – Boston Red Sox – Curt Schilling – 9% of Team Payroll.
2001 – Arizona Diamondbacks – Randy Johnson, Curt Schilling, and Luis Gonzalez – 16%, 7%, and 5% of Team Payroll.
Let’s say that Fielder commands an 8-year, $195 million contract (as originally thought). If Prince Fielder repeats his .299/.412/.602 regular season from 2009 and posts a WAR of 6.4 for the Mariners in 2011 his performance would come somewhere near 22%-24% of the payroll (depending on which pieces the Mariners would move to sign him). Attendance is nearing an All-Time team low so let’s assume that the Mariner’s payroll is not going to jump significantly over $100 million in the near future.
Following the timeline of recent baseball history it does not reflect well on the Mariners making a move to land Prince Fielder this 2011 offseason. It appears the Mariners time would be best spent ensuring that Ackley, Pineda, and the other young up and coming players have the payroll room to lend their services to the Mariners for the long term. Patience is a virtue in some professions but in baseball it sure is a tough pill to swallow.