Ron Paul finished in third place in the Iowa caucuses on January 3. Does this help his chances to win the Republican presidential nomination? To answer that question, we must take a look at his competition for the nomination.
Mitt Romney narrowly won the Iowa caucuses. He is definitely going forward. Rick Santorum finished in second place in Iowa and he will also be making the trip to New Hampshire. The fourth-place finisher was Newt Gingrich and he too will be going on to the first primary in the nation. What about the other contenders? Michelle Bachmann has exited the race after finishing sixth. Rick Perry, after a brief assessment, has decided to continue and focus his efforts in South Carolina.
Now, let us take the candidates one at a time and assess their long-term potential in the nomination process.
Mitt Romney has plenty of money and he is the establishment’s preferred candidate so he is not going anywhere. He will most likely be one of the last two candidates standing.
Newt Gingrich doesn’t have a lot of money, but he certainly has a healthy amount of anger toward Mitt Romney. I think he will begin to run out of support as the primaries go forward and voters coalecse around fewer candidates.
Rick Santorum did not have much money prior to Iowa, but he does have the momentum. Therefore he will be in the contest for at least a little while longer. There are many that doubt whether he can make it all the way to the finish line. We will have to see how South Carolina and Florida shake out.
While Jon Huntsman has little support, he has plenty of money and he can stay in the race as long as he wants to spend his own cash. It will be interesting to observe how much of his children’s inheritance he wants to spend.
Rick Perry has a modest level of support and he is anticipating a warmer reception as the campaign swings south. His campaign has also been successful in raising money. Campaign cash is going to become more and more important as the primaries go forward. It is for this reason that I think Mr. Perry can be a long-term competitor in the nomination battle.
From Mr. Paul’s standpoint the worst case scenario would be for him to be one of four remaining candidates. The ceiling of support would be quite limited as I do not believe that he would draw support from the other candidates’ voters. Were the nomination field narrowed to Paul, Romney and Santorum or Perry, then Paul’s chances would still be less than favorable. Romney would have his voters, whether Paul could draw support from the third candidate would depend on whether or not that candidate could make themselves a significant factor in the race.
The best case for Mr. Paul would be to have only one opponent in the nomination process. As discussed above, that one candidate would be drawn from two or three individuals, most likely Mitt Romney. Paul’s only hope to secure the nomination would be that there is such an anti-Romney bias, as a result of the failed McCain candidacy in 2008 and Romney’s own shortcomings, that enough support gathers around Mr. Paul to secure the nomination outright prior to the convention. If the nomination battle should to go to the convention Mr. Paul would never win; the establishment would simply not allow it. The deck is stacked against Mr. Paul and the odds are long.