5 Lessons from the 2011 Fantasy Football Season

Here is a brief list of five things I learned or observed this fantasy football season. It’s never too early to start planning for next year. I only play in PPR leagues so whenever I have a round or advice written, you should take it in the context of a PPR league.

5. You can’t trust Michael Vick (in the 1st round). I remember doing one of my many practice mock drafts prior to the beginning of the season. Another mocker selected Michael Vick first overall. This annoyed me. I was practicing for my 12 team PPR in which I had pick #5 and I wanted to know which RB would fall to me (ended up being Jamaal Charles, obviously not a championship team). When someone makes a pick like Vick No. 1 overall, it throws the mock draft off, and it doesn’t help me as much. I let this particular mock drafter know what I thought of his pick and questioned his fantasy football prowess and informed him that Vick was not even the best fantasy QB in 2010. He responded by questioning my intelligence and pointed out that Vick scored the most fantasy points per game last year. I responded saying that Vick’s numbers were inflated due to one game vs. the Redskins (he scored like 60 or 70 fantasy points that game) and that he couldn’t stay healthy for an entire season. I feel that this season ultimately proved me correct. He didn’t stay healthy, he did not continue to put up the kinds of numbers he did last year. At the beginning of the 1st round, you have to play it safe (Ray Rice, Adrian Peterson for example). Vick is too risky to pick that high. If you feel the need to go QB in the first round, go Brees or Rodgers (maybe even Brady). Early first round picks should be players with a track record of health and production. Don’t get me wrong, Vick could pay off big time, but you need to target him in the second round. First round picks should be low risk players.

4. Don’t underestimate the importance of QB.
Gone are the days of waiting to select a QB until the 8-10th round, unless you think you get someone later that will be a Top 5 guy. For instance, I drafted Matt Stafford in the 7th round this year. That worked out well. He was a risk though. If he had gotten hurt like in the past, I would have been scraping the waiver wire all season for the Jay Cutlers and Tim Tebows and trying to get by on the strength of my other positions. Even though it is important to draft a good QB, I wouldn’t draft a QB in the first part of the 1st round. You need to get a stud RB or WR there and wait on a QB. Some teams who drafted QB early in the first round ended up with Mike Williams-TB at WR1 or LaGarrette Blount at RB1. Those are probably not championship teams. Eli Manning, Matthew Stafford, Ben Roethlisberger, Philip Rivers and Tony Romo have all had fairly solid fantasy seasons this year. If you miss out on one of the top QBs, these guys can be had later (3rd-5th rounds or later) and you can shore up other positions in the early rounds.

3. Chan Gailey has a good offense for fantasy RBs. Fred Jackson was a fantasy juggernaut before he was hurt. C.J. Spiller is working himself into a good fantasy option in the last few weeks of the season. Going into next season, we can feel confident about fantasy points coming from the Buffalo Bills RB position. The questions are, which of the two is going to get the majority of those points and where should they be drafted? Fred Jackson is going to be 31 years old next season and is coming of a broken leg. C.J. Spiller is undersized, according to Gailey, and has not yet produced consistently enough to be trusted. Fred Jackson is a relatively ‘low-mileage’ 31 year old RB and break away speed that tends to leave 30+ year old RBs has never really been a part of his game anyway. Jackson is also a leader in the locker room for the Bills. In the backfield split next season, I think Jackson will receive the most work in a 60/40 or 70/30 split and still be effective. In a 10-team PPR, I would rate Jackson as an RB2 that will go in the 4th-5th round. In the 5th round or later, I think he would be a bargain. As for Spiller, he could be a decent flex option and probably a 7th-8th round pick.

2. Approach rookie WRs with caution. This is quite a leap for me. My mantra used to be, “avoid all rookie WRs.” My thinking was that NFL offenses are too complicated for a rookie WR to live up to his fantasy draft spot in his first year. This year has changed my mind a little bit. In a year with a limited off-season, both A.J. Green and Julio Jones are averaging 4-5 rec/game, about 75 yards/game and both are averaging 0.5 TDs/game. That production far exceeded what I would have thought either could do this season, especially considering the uncertainty of the QB situation in Cincinnati at the beginning of the year. In 2010, Mike Williams-TB had 65 receptions for 964 yards and 11 TDs but the much more hyped Dez Bryant had only posted 45/561/6. My point is that although 2011 has had two useful fantasy WRs, this might be the exception rather than the rule. I live in Big XII country and I’ve watched Justin Blackmon tear defenses apart for the last couple years, but I don’t want to have to depend on him to produce for my fantasy team in Week 1 of 2012.

1. I’m just going to pack a bunch more one liner’s in for this one. Watch out for guys who just got paid (Fitzpatrick, CJ2K). Pick guys in the last year of their contract (guys who are about to get paid, Forte, the exception to this rule is DeSean Jackson). Scour the waiver wire. (I was able to get both Eli Manning and Victor Cruz off the waiver wire in a competitive league with a shallow bench. That was my sole championship team this season.) Wait to draft a D/ST (I got SF in the 2nd to last round in one league this year). Do not draft a kicker until the last round (I will find you and make fun of you if you do). That’s it. Thanks for reading.


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