2012 Fantasy Baseball: Overvalued Hitters

Pinpointing players who overachieved is just as important as finding sleepers in fantasy baseball, and drafting these players accordingly often separate playoff teams from teams on the outside looking in.

Finding these players can be difficult, but it is important to look for players who performed better in the previous year than their career statistics indicate going forward. And, of course, gut instinct is a key factor.

Take Adrian Gonzalez’s 2011, for example. In his first go-around with the Boston Red Sox, Gonzalez batted a career-best .338 and drove in 117, but his home run tally of 27 left a little to be desired after hitting 30 or more home runs for four straight years in San Diego.

By no means was A-Gon a bust in 2011, but fantasy owners who saw the left-hander hit only two home runs in April were skeptical of the slugger’s trek from pitcher-friendly PETCO Park to hitter-friendly Fenway. Gonzalez’s 2011 average of .380 on balls in play was almost 50 points higher than his career average of .333, suggesting luck played a factor in 2011.

Will Gonzalez hit .338 again? Doubtful. My guess is he’ll hit closer to his .293 career mark with around 30 home runs. Certainly not a disappointment, but maybe not what owners expected when Gonzalez left San Diego for one of the better lineups in baseball in Boston.

The following five players exceeded expectations in 2011 and will regress in 2012. Draft with caution.

Starlin Castro – The Chicago Cubs darling shortstop led the entire National League with 207 hits in 2012. That’s more hits than Albert Pujols, Ryan Braun, Matt Kemp and Jose Reyes. Not bad for a 21-year-old.

But it was just Castro’s second year in the big leagues, and those expecting him to top a line of .307 – 10 – 66 with 91 runs and 22 stolen bases will be disappointed. With the Cubs in full-rebuild mode and with the departure of Aramis Ramirez and Carlos Pena, Castro will be the de facto star, and I don’t think he’s ready.

Look for Castro to regress across the board in all major stat categories. I’m projecting .280 – 9 – 55 with 75 runs and 17 stolen bases.

Josh Hamilton – The Texas Rangers have put a halt on contract extension talks with Hamilton after his latest setback off the field, but fantasy owners are more interested in how much time he’ll see on the field in 2012.

In the past three years, Hamilton has missed 143 games with multiple injuries. If you are thinking about drafting Hamilton, it’s time to let someone else pay the price. Sure, the upside is a high batting average with over 30 home runs and 100 runs driven in, but if he misses significant time again, you’ll be left with 20-some home runs and fewer RBIs – stats you can find elsewhere at a much cheaper price.

Mike Napoli – The Texas Rangers catcher busted out in a big way in 2012, pounding out a career-best 30 home runs and 75 RBIs in his first year in Arlington after struggling to find consistent playing time with Mike Scioscia in Anaheim.

But the stat that sticks out is Napoli’s average of .320 – nearly 80 points higher than his career mark of .264. Despite being penciled into a far superior lineup, that’s an alarming spike in batting average, and one in 2012 we should expect to creep closer to his career average. And when you look at his 2010 average of .238, last year looks even flukier.

I am expecting 25 home runs and a .265-.270 batting average – a great stat line to plug in at catcher, but one that may not be worth a high draft pick when other players who contribute in more than just the power categories are still available.

Matt Holliday – I could be way off on this one, as the St. Louis Cardinals outfielder has been a model of offensive consistency since breaking in with the Colorado Rockies in 2004. Holliday enters his 32-year-old season with career averages of .315 – 29 – 110.

Last year’s .296 average was his lowest since a .307 mark way back in 2005, and his 22 home runs were also his lowest since that time. I don’t expect a steep decline in Holliday’s numbers, but I also see a borderline top-20 outfielder on the decline. I expect to see a sub-.300 average with 20 home runs and 70 RBIs. Just don’t reach for him expecting more.

Rickie Weeks – Prince Fielder. Gone. Ryan Braun. Potentially suspended for 50 games. That leaves Weeks, Corey Hart and newly-arrived Aramis Ramirez as the main men in Milwaukee, and that’s not one trio I am ready to bet on.

In addition to a past filled with injuries and not knowing where he’ll slide into this year’s lineup, I’m not excited about Weeks in 2012. Last year, Weeks hit an impressive 20 home runs but only managed to drive in 49 with nine steals and a sub par .269 batting average. As things stand in Milwaukee, I’m predicting a .265 average with 18 home runs and 55-60 RBIs.


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