In the American League, four rookies established themselves as the true contenders for the Rookie of the Year award. In the National League, however, there was a virtual All-Star team’s worth of rookie players making serious contributions for their team. If you gave a franchise the following pieces:
– The starting rotation of Vance Worley, Cory Luebke, Josh Collmenter and Brandon Beachy,
– Craig Kimbrel, Fernando Salas and Aroldis Chapman in the bullpen
– An infield of C – Wilson Ramos, 1B – Freddy Freeman, 2B – Danny Espinosa and 3B – Daniel Descalso
That franchise might not be in the postseason this year, but they wouldn’t be a cellar team either, and they’d have a bright future ahead of them. To put it simply, there were a lot of RoY candidates in the NL in 2011.
For the American League, I imposed the qualification limits of 140 innings pitched or 400 plate appearances to be eligible for the Rookie of the Year award. It kills me to do this, but I am already abandoning those rules so that I can include Worley (who was 11-3 this season) and Kimbrel (who was one of the best closers in the NL this year) in the discussion.
A quick rundown of the true contenders would have to include Worley and Kimbrel of course. In addition to those two, Freddy Freeman is in the discussion with his rookie-leading OPS and HR total. Danny Espinosa tied Freeman in the HR department and led rookies in WAR. Wilson Ramos played the toughest defensive position on the field, played it well, produced the third most RC/27 and was second in WAR, so he is also in the discussion. Josh Collmenter had the best WHIP among rookie pitchers, the lowest ERA of any pitcher with 140+ IP and the most Quality Starts of any rookie while helping a surprising Arizona team make the postseason. And finally Brandon Beachy was one of the most dominant rookie pitchers in baseball this season, leading rookies in both Ks and K/9 at an astounding rate of 10.74.
So a case can be made for seven different players for this award, and none of them would be totally wrong. But in sports, somebody gets to win and somebody has to lose. So without further ado, here are my top three for the National League Rookie of the Year award for 2011:
3) Brandon Beachy – Atlanta Braves
The Atlanta Braves’ starting pitcher was probably the most dominant rookie pitcher this season. For the year, he averaged an astounding 10.74 K/9, easily leading all rookie starters (the second best for pitchers with 120+ innings was Cory Luebke’s 9.92). Not only did he lead rookie pitchers in K/9, but he also put together a fantastic 3.67 K/BB ratio, also pacing the rookie class. Also working in Beachy’s favor were his second-best DIPS and second place ranking among rookie pitchers in WAR. Though he didn’t pitch the most innings, accrue the most wins, or hold the lowest ERA or WHIP, Brandon Beachy was a dominant starting pitcher this season and was, in my estimation, the third best rookie in 2011.
2) Vance Worley – Philadelphia Phillies
So I had to edit the rules of inclusion in my rookie of the year ballot to get his name into the mix, but it was well worth it. The Phillies rotation was touted as one of the best ever when they put Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, and Roy Oswalt in a lineup together. But early in the season, Oswalt got hurt and the Phillies struggled to find an adequate fourth or fifth starter; or at least people were afraid they might. But the best rotation ever got better when the Phillies called rookie Vance Worley up to the majors to pitch in the starting rotation on a regular basis. For the season, he compiled an NL-rookie-leading 11-3 record with a 3.01 ERA. For more advanced statistics, Worley was second among rookie starters in both WAR (behind only Beachy) and WPA (behind only Collmenter). Some people will look at his ERC, DIPS, and WHIP and say he is a pitcher scheduled for regression, but they forget that the main goal of a pitcher is to prevent runs and give his team a chance to win games. Worley was the best starter at that this season, and filled big shoes in the high-pressure Phillies rotation. Those facts are the reasons that Vance Worley finds himself second on this Rookie of the Year ballot.
1) Craig Kimbrel – Atlanta Braves
The lasting image of Kimbrel for many Atlanta Braves fans will be him collapsing in September and giving the St. Louis Cardinals an opportunity to steal away a postseason spot that the Braves seemed to have locked up in August, and that is unfortunate. Over the entire season, Kimbrel was an extremely valuable part of the Atlanta Braves team and was a big part of the reason that they ended the season with the fifth best record in the NL. His 2.10 ERA easily was the best of NL rookie pitchers, starters or relievers, and his 3.2 WAR was second only to Danny Espinosa for all NL rookies. It takes a lot of faith for a manager to name a player a full time closer, and Kimbrel was the only rookie to earn this position for the entire season. Kimbrel’s 46 saves were more than twice as many as the second best rookie pitcher this season, and actually gave him more saves than all other NL rookie pitchers combined (42). Finally, among pitchers with at least 70 IP, Kimbrel ranked second in WPA, behind only Collmenter. The position of closer is difficult to evaluate; obviously saves are not a definitive measure of a player’s impact, and relief pitchers carry a different standard than starters for success, but for an award like Rookie of the Year, comparisons must be attempted. Kimbrel was a key part of a talented team this year and was one of the best closers in the NL, regardless of experience. I believe he had a bigger and better impact on his team this season than any other rookie in the NL, and that is why he gets the number one spot on this list.
The NL RoY was an extremely tough race to figure out. There were a number of exceptional candidates in the league, including four pitchers who played prominent roles in the postseason race and several hitters who are already near the best at their position. It was an extremely talented year for first year players, and this race was very close, but at the end of the season, Craig Kimbrel was the player who distinguished himself the most and should win the 2011 NL Rookie of the Year award.
Sources:
2011 NL Pitching Stats – Fangraphs
2011 NL Batting Stats – Fangraphs
2011 NL Pitching Stats – ESPN
2011 NL Batting Stats – ESPN