The UFC likes to put together a big card every year for their New Year’s weekend event. It doesn’t get a whole lot bigger size-wise than the two guys in the main event. It’s also a pretty big matchup in terms of what’s at stake: a move up the ladder for one of two heavyweights, both of whom are already near the top of it. Let’s take a look at this fight and the two others — Fitch vs. Hendricks and Diaz vs. Cerrone — which I’m guessing most would agree are the card’s most anticipated.
John Fitch vs. Johnny Hendricks is arguably the least interesting matchup of the three, despite the fact that Fitch could be considered the highest ranking fighter of the six. Problem is, Fitch isn’t known for exciting fights. Match him with another great wrestler with a great record, and you have a recipe for most boring fight of the night. Then again, if I had a dime for every time I was excited about a fight that turned out to be a snoozefest (or for that matter, a couple of hungry no-names put on a show to remember), I’d have a lot of dimes. I haven’t seen any betting lines, but Fitch is obviously the favorite here. Probably by decision.
Nate Diaz vs. Donald Cerrone is a lot more interesting to me. Cerrone has the better record but Diaz , in my opinion, has faced tougher competition and has bigger wins. Taking that into consideration, I’d say it’s a wash as far as records go. I might even give the edge to Diaz in that department. Here’s the problem for Diaz: when he’s up against a good fighter who fights smart, he loses. And Cerrone, despite the fact that I’m not really hearing this elsewhere, looks to be a pretty big 155.
Still, I figured Diaz would be considered the favorite. I planned to “go out on a limb” and predict Cerrone to win, most likely by decision. I was surprised to find that according to the betting lines, Cerrone is the favorite. Betting lines aren’t always right, but they usually are. I guess my prediction isn’t as unconventional as I thought, but I’ll stick with it. Though Diaz at 2-1 — if you can still get it — isn’t a horrible bet.
Related: Gambling on MMA: An Explanation of Betting Lines
Then there’s the headliner. Lesnar against Overeem. I was again surprised to hear of the favorite as far as the betting odds go. I figured it would be Lesnar. Turns out it’s Overeem. I don’t know much about Overeem, so I checked his record. He’s got a nice winning streak going, but the opponents aren’t all that impressive. He had some nice wins during the Pride days, but took some beatdowns too. And that was years ago.
Lesnar is former UFC Heavyweight Champion. But he hasn’t fought in a while. He is huge, is an incredible wrestler, and has shown that, more often than not, he beats top UFC heavyweights. But he lost his last fight and probably doesn’t have a lot of time left in the sport, which makes another loss all the more significant. Will these mental factors come into play? I don’t know, but I do think that if Lesnar capitalizes on his wrestling and size — assuming he is still cutting to make 265 — he wins this fight. I think he will, so I’m going with Lesnar. No prediction on how it ends.
Let’s hope for a great night of fights. And Happy New Year.