If you’re a cheesehead, there are many sound reasons that may lead you to believe that the Green Bay Packers will repeat as Super Bowl champions.
First off, repeating is actually a pretty common occurrence in the NFL. The Miami Dolphins did it in the early ’70s. The Pittsburgh Steelers accomplished it twice in the mid and late ’70s. The San Francisco 49ers pulled it off in the late ’80s. The Dallas Cowboys in the early ’90s. The Denver Broncos in the late ’90s. Brady’s New England Patriots achieved it at the turn of the millennium.
And guess who won the first two Super Bowls?
The Green Bay Packers with a back-to-back number in ’67 and ’68.
Additionally, the Packers have one of the best defenses in the NFL (as you fantasy nuts may know) and at this point, I think everyone is ready to accept that Aaron Rodgers is an elite, top-five quarterback in the league.
Still, I think there are even better reasons to believe that the NFL will not come full circle with a Green Bay Packers victory in 2012.
Without further ado, here they are:
4. The Odds
Part of what makes the Super Bowl such a spectacular feat in sports is the difficulty of the tournament it belongs to. The NFL playoffs, along with March Madness and the World Cup, is one of the hardest competitions to win due to its single elimination format.
Therefore, winning the tournament twice in a row almost always requires a level of utter dominance that the Green Bay Packers simply didn’t display last year.
Sometimes, as was the case with the ’06 and ’09 Steelers, Super Bowl champions fail to even make the playoffs the season following their title win. This is part of a phenomenon referred to as the “Super Bowl hangover” and is exemplified by the fact that of the last six teams to win it all, only the 2005 Pats won a playoff game the following year.
Clearly, none of this directly impacts the 2012 Packers, but it all speaks to how hard repeating actually is.
3. Specious Revisionist History
As previously mentioned, the Green Bay Packers weren’t as dominant last year as most would make you believe. Part of the reason people feel that way to begin with is that their lasting image of football involves Aaron Rodgers hoisting the Vince Lombardi trophy and showing off his imaginary championship belt.
Psychology 101: What comes last resonates. It’s called the recency effect.
But long-term memory issues aside, the Packers were 8-6 with two weeks to play last season. They lost to bad teams like the Dolphins and Redskins in overtime on back-to-back Sundays and squeaked by the Chicago Bears for a playoff berth after being down 3-0 at halftime.
Aside from mauling the Atlanta Falcons in the NFC Divisional Round, the Packers beat the Eagles, Bears and Steelers all by one touchdown or less.
Given the odds and their less-than-dominant wins, the Green Bay Packers would need the stars to align twice to win the Super Bowl in 2012.
2. The Injury Bug
Last season it was Brad Jones’ shoulder, Clay Matthews’ hamstring, Frank Zombo’s knee, Donald Lee’s shoulder, Ryan Pickett’s ankle, Derrick Martin’s ankle, and Jermichael Finley’s hamstring.
Aaron Rodger’s concussion.
This year, already, the Green Bay Packers’ ever-expanding injury list has made its return. Finley’s ankle is still a concern. Vic So’oto’s is week-to-week because of his back.
Both Lawrence Guy and Shaky Smithson are out for the season with a concussion and shoulder injury, respectively.
Aside from the nasty injury bug plaguing the team, CB Charles Woodson and LT Chad Clifton, who are said to be aging like wine, both turn 76 next season.
What all of this means is that some of the Green Bay Packers’ most pivotal players have either suffered injuries recently or are due for a visit from father time.
The weathered beard and hourglass make him look like a friendly grandpa figure, but have you ever wondered what he’s doing with that scythe?
1. The Dream Team
I know, I know: The Packers beat the Philadelphia Eagles twice last season. They edged them out by a touchdown in Week 1 and then barely eliminated Vick’s bunch by five in the Wild Card Round.
But, all of that was before the Eagles assembled what is being referred to as “The Dream Team.”
Now many of you will be quick to point out that the Eagles haven’t accomplished anything yet, and you’d be right. But you have to admit, the Eagles have put together a potential juggernaut and in theory, should be the best team in the NFL.
Philadelphia boasts one of the top defenses in the NFL, a stud in DeSean Jackson, the most electrifying quarterback in NFL history in Michael Vick and added Nmamdi Asomugha, Ronnie Brown, Cullen Jenkins and Vince Young.
Vast improvement.
For these reasons, I don’t think the Green Bay Packers will make it out of the NFC.
If you’re a cheesehead, you might as well consider Michael Vick, DeSean Jackson, Nmamdi Asomugha and Asante Samuel the Four Horseman of the Apocalypse.
Get ready for a Pats-Eagles Super Bowl showdown.
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