The Real 2011 NFL Quarterback Rankings

As I wrote last season, I prefer to rate quarterbacks using my own formula instead of the NFL’s passer rating system.

I think mine more accurately reflects a quarterback’s contribution to winning games- as opposed to just putting up stats – as it’s focused purely on yards per play (can he move the ball?), big play percentage (can he win field position and put up points?), and turnover percentage (can he protect field position and limit the opponent’s scoring chances?).

Fumbles, whether lost or not, show up in the turnover percentage- a fair penalty for a QB’s part in taking sacks, which isn’t otherwise accounted for. The actual formula is this:

Yards Per Play + % of plays over 20 yards – Turnover % = QB Rating

There were 33 quarterbacks who threw enough passes to qualify for the NFL’s rating system, the only team with two being the Arizona Cardinals. The following list is the order they finished in my system, with their rating in brackets. In the event of a tie, the player who logged more attempts is ranked higher. At the end I’ll go through some of the more interesting things that popped up while tallying these, although some of the rankings themselves are interesting enough!

1. Aaron Rodgers (18.0)

2. Tom Brady (16.7)

3. Drew Brees (16.5)

4. Carson Palmer (15.7)

5. Matt Schaub (15.7)

6. Cam Newton (15.4)

7. Tony Romo (15.4)

8. Eli Manning (15.3)

9. Philip Rivers (14.4)

10. Ben Roethlisberger (14.2)

11. Matthew Stafford (14.1)

12. Michael Vick (14.0)

13. Matt Ryan (13.7)

14. Alex Smith (12.9)

15. Jay Cutler (12.8)

16. Andy Dalton (12.2)

17. Matt Hasselbeck (11.8)

18. Tavaris Jackson (11.6)

19. John Skelton (11.3)

20. Matt Moore (11.1)

21. Rex Grossman (11.0)

22. Joe Flacco (10.4)

23. Kevin Kolb (10.3)

24. Ryan Fitzpatrick (9.6)

25. Tim Tebow (9.2)

26. Matt Cassel (8.7)

27. Curtis Painter (8.6)

28. Mark Sanchez (8.5)

29. Sam Bradford (8.5)

30. Christian Ponder (7.9)

31. Josh Freeman (7.0)

32. Colt McCoy (6.9)

33. Blaine Gabbert (5.4)

Top 5 in Big Play Percentage:

Carson Palmer, Aaron Rodgers, Philip Rivers, Cam Newton, Michael Vick

Bottom 5 in Big Play Percentage:

Colt McCoy, Blaine Gabbert, Josh Freeman, Sam Bradford, Mark Sanchez

Top 5 in Turnover Percentage:

Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Alex Smith, Tom Brady, Matt Ryan

Bottom 5 in Turnover Percentage:

Matt Moore, Christian Ponder, Rex Grossman, John Skelton, Kevin Kolb

Random Thoughts:

Only Ed Reed will admit it, but Flacco is holding the Ravens back

– Houston is scary with a healthy Matt Schaub

– Cam Newton is every bit the terror for defenses that Michael Vick is

– Arizona didn’t get bad QB play and should be fixing their O-line not courting Peyton

– Carson Palmer is not in fact washed up just yet

– Tavaris Jackson is better than you think

– At some point you have to ask if Sam Bradford is really any good

– Josh Freeman has the tools to keep his job, Colt McCoy does not

– Buffalo made an error directing what little spending they do at Ryan Fitzpatrick

– My preseason rookie rankings were bang on predicting that Newton and Dalton would turn heads while Ponder and Gabbert would struggle

– Tim Tebow is what he is (a below average QB), narrowly avoiding showing up on both Bottom 5 lists

– Kevin Kolb looks an awful lot like Officer Tackleberry from the Police Academy movies

Okay that last one doesn’t help us evaluate anything, but it’s true. You’re probably looking up both their pictures right now… In the meantime, here’s my final salient observation that I’d like to point out:

12 teams make the playoffs, and 5 of them had a QB that ranked outside of the Top 12.

The league goes in cycles, and this makes me wonder if we’ve hit the peak of the recent pass-happy quarterback driven success model in the NFL.

I kind of hope so.


People also view

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *