Is Tim Tebow the 2nd Best QB in Fantasy?

Yes I actually said that and no I’m not joking. And to what do I base this ridiculous claim? Why the numbers, of course. Now many consider Aaron Rodgers to be the top QB in fantasy football. From an efficiency standpoint, Tim Tebow is on par with Aaron Rodgers (if not a little better). Now If I had to choose right now between Aaron Rodgers and Tim Tebow of course I’m going to choose Aaron Rodgers. No question. But do I think that Tim Tebow has the opportunity to develop in to one of the top QBs in the fantasy game? Absolutely. In the paragraphs that follow, I’ll try and explain why. Full disclosure – I don’t consider myself to be a Tebow hater or admirer. Mainly I’m just someone who prefers to take emotion out of the equation when evaluating fantasy football talent.

So let’s start with the some explanation of the dataset and the analysis that was done. I downloaded stats from pro-football-reference.com for every game played between 2005 and week 11 of the 2011 season. I then uploaded this data in to a SQL Server database and calculated fantasy stats based on my league’s scoring system, which is as follows:

Passing Yards – 1 pt per 25 yards
Passing TDs – 4 pts per TD
Passing INTs – (-1) pt per INT
Rushing Yards – 1 pt per 10 yards
Rushing TDs – 6 pts per TD

Our league also penalizes for sacks and fumbles, but I wasn’t able to locate this data so I’m excluding it from the analysis. Next I calculated fantasy production on a per touch basis. For RBs and WRs this is easy; it’s simply the number of times a player has touched the ball. For QBs this gets a little more complicated. Should we base efficiency on passes attempted or passes completed? I chose the latter since I feel like a completed pass is more in line with the concept of the ball being “put in play”. To look at it another way, think of it as basing WR stats on targets rather than completions; while targets are important since production is often times a function of opportunity, at the end of the day, all that matters is how often a WR is touching the rock in a “live ball” situation.

And so the measure I came up with to track fantasy efficiency is something that I’ll refer to as fantasy points per touch or FPPT for short. For QBs this is simply [Fantasy Passing Pts + Fantasy Rushing Pts]/[Pass Completions + Rushing Attempts]. With FPPT in hand, let’s take a look at the most efficient QBs for the 2011 season:

1. Aaron Rodgers – 0.96 FPPT, 28 touches per game
2. Tim Tebow – 0.90 FPPT, 18 touches per game
3. Matt Schaub – 0.86 FPPT, 19 touches per game
4. Tom Brady – 0.85 FPPT, 27 touches per game
5. Cam Newton – 0.81 FPPT, 30 touches per game

So some of the Tebow haters out there might say that this season is just a statistical anomaly. Ok fair enough, so let’s take a look at the most efficient QBs between 2005 and week 11 of the the 2011 season:

1. Tim Tebow – 1.02 FPPT, 15 touches per game
2. Michael Vick – 0.86 FPPT, 19 touches per game
3. Aaron Rodgers – 0.84 FPPT, 24 touches per game
4. Cam Newton – 0.81 FPPT, 30 touches per game
5. Tom Brady – 0.79 FPPT, 24 touches per game

I think even the most novice of fantasy football players would not be surprised to see Vick, Rodgers, Brady and Newton show up on that list. But Tim Tebow? Really? Ah, but then the Tebow haters will point out that he gets all of his points on the ground. Ok so let’s look at fantasy efficiency based solely on passing stats:

1. Tim Tebow – 1.02 FPPT, 9.6 comp per game
2. Aaron Rodgers – 0.84 FPPT, 20.3 comp per game
3. Tom Brady – 0.83 FPPT, 22.1 comp per game
4. Carson Palmer – 0.82 FPPT, 15.8 comp per game
5. Tony Romo – 0.81 FPPT, 21.2 comp per game

Now things just got a little more interesting. Based solely on the numbers, Tim Tebow is just as efficient in the fantasy passing game as the top QBs in the fantasy game (if anything he’s a little more efficient). So basically whether he’s throwing or running, Tebow puts up roughly 1 FPPT per touch, which puts him in the top 5 of either category for QBs. For all the talk of how explosive Tebow is in the running game, he’s just as good in the passing game, when he actually completes a pass (which at this point in his career isn’t often enough).

And the lack of completions appears to be the only roadblock preventing Tebow from joining the fantasy elite. Tebow’s averaging roughly 10 completions per game while the elite QBs average something closer to 20 completions per game. This goes back to the argument that some pundits have made about how Tebow will never make it as a QB since his completion percentage hovers around 50%.

But let’s not forget that this is basically Tebow’s first season as a starting QB in the NFL. Has all the hype surrounding the rookie performances of Cam Newton and Andy Dalton somehow skewed our expectations? Perhaps. Does anyone think that Tebow’s passing abilities will regress from where he’s at now? I think the likelihood of that happening is pretty low considering how horrible he’s been at times this season. What I see is the floor for a player with plenty of potential to improve in the passing game. Tebow works his tail off and seems like he genuinely cares about his craft. Why can’t he get better?

Let’s suppose for a second that he actually does improve as a passer. Let’s suppose that he’s able to get his completion percentage up to 60% and that Fox is willing to let him toss the rock 30 times a game (right now he’s averaging around 20 pass attempts per game). From where Tebow’s currently at, that would work out to an extra 8 completions per game. At Tebow’s historical rate of 1 FPPT, this would mean an extra 8 fantasy points per game. Tebow is currently averaging right around 15 fantasy points per game and an extra 8 points per game would put him in the ballpark of 23 fantasy points per game, which is elite territory for QBs. Now some might argue that Tebow passing more means fewer rushing attempts – which most consider to be his bread and butter – but if you look at the efficiency stats, you’ll see that he’s producing at roughly the same rate whether he’s running or throwing. And so based on that, it doesn’t appear that more passes and fewer rushes will hurt Tebow’s fantasy production.

So what’s this all mean? Well for starters, if I were in a dynasty league – which I am – Tebow would be the #1 target on my keeper list. He may be a season or two away, but I think the potential return is pretty attractive, especially when you consider the relatively low cost of the investment.


People also view

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *