Every year, MLB teams have an expectation of about how good they will be that season. This expectation comes from a knowledge of the players on their roster and a general sense of the production those players will create over the season. But there is always a wild card factor that can vault a team up in the standings and make them a surprising contender that year: rookies. A big-time Rookie of the Year candidate can be the difference between a cellar team and a middle-of-the-division finisher, a middle-of-the-division finisher and a playoff contender, and in some very extreme cases, the difference between a playoff contender and a World Series champion. In recent years, rookies like Austin Jackson, Wade Davis, Jeff Niemann and David Price have made huge differences in their respective teams’ successes and have been powerful first-year forces in the MLB. This season in the American League, it was another good year for rookie players.
The headlines recently have centered on Matt Moore’s emergence as a powerful force in Tampa Bay’s pitching staff and Jesus Montero’s powerful bat at the end of the season, but they only played a pivotal role for a month of the year. The Rookie of the Year award should go to a player who impacted the season for the majority of it; a player who was there from start to finish and led his team throughout slumps and rough stretches. As a result, I believe pitchers must have thrown at least 140 innings over the season and batters must have accrued at least 400 plate appearances (a normal MLB starter will get about 650 over the season).
When these criteria are applied, there are really four candidates left in contention for this award. First: Eric Hosmer, the first baseman for the Kansas City Royals. Hosmer had 523 ABs this season, compiling an average of .293, an OPS of .799, and 78.2 Runs Created (RC). His OPS and RC both led eligible rookies in those categories. Additionally, Hosmer led rookies with 400 plate appearances in WPA and was fourth in WAR.
The other three candidates are all pitchers. First there is the Yankees’ Ivan Nova. Nova had the most impressive record of any rookie pitcher at 16-4, had a 3.70 ERA, helped his club reach the postseason, and was second among rookie pitchers in WAR. Next there is Michael Pineda of the Seattle Mariners. Known for his powerful, violent delivery and excellent fastball, Pineda had the best WHIP among rookie pitchers, a record of 9-10, an ERA of 3.74 and led rookies in both component ERA (ERC) and defense-independent ERA (DIPS). Finally there is Jeremy Hellickson. He led rookie pitchers in ERA, innings and WPA. He also played an enormous role down the stretch as the Tampa Bay Rays overtook the Boston Red Sox for the AL Wild Card.
With these four candidates in mind, I now give you my ranking, from three to one, for the Rookie of the Year award in the American League in 2011.
3) Ivan Nova – New York Yankees
Ivan Nova began the 2011 season with the New York Yankees, but was demoted back to the minor leagues early in the season. After a few weeks in triple-A, Nova returned to the Yankees and solidified himself as their number two starter behind CC Sabathia. Though wins are largely a product of team composition, a 16-4 record is still an impressive accomplishment for any pitcher, let alone a rookie, and it easily paced rookie pitchers. Additionally, in September (meaning crunch time), Nova was lockdown, logging a 2-0 record with a 2.67 ERA in 5 starts. Extending this period of time to post-lockout, Nova was 8-0 with a 3.18 ERA in 11 starts. Some people will point to Nova’s low strikeout rate, high WHIP/low ERA combo, poor DIPS and lack of sustained minor league success to say that Nova was merely lucky this season, not good, but they are missing the point. The true point here is that Ivan Nova, in 2011, was a very good pitcher, a very good rookie, and deserves the third spot on this list.
2) Eric Hosmer – Kansas City Royals
Though three of the four candidates I mentioned were pitchers, it’s important to give the position players a little love here too. Hosmer was a great bat all season for the Royals, making the team out of spring training and never looking back. As mentioned above, Hosmer led rookie hitters in plenty of categories including OPS, hits, RC, RC/27, and WAR. What makes him second on this list is how he compared to other AL first basemen. He ranked in the top seven in BA, OPS, HR, RC, RC/27, and WAR. Most impressively, Hosmer ranked fourth among AL first basemen in WAR, ahead of names like Mike Napoli and Mark Teixeira. Hosmer had an excellent rookie campaign, was easily the best rookie hitter in the American League, and deserves the second spot on a Rookie of the Year ballot.
1) Jeremy Hellickson – Tampa Bay Rays
I have to be honest, the only reason I did a top three list was so that I had an opportunity to discuss some of the other very talented rookies this season; when it comes to the actual Rookie of the Year, there is no debate. Jeremy Hellickson was the best rookie this season, and was also the most important. For starters, Hellickson threw 189.0 innings this season, 18 more than any other rookie pitcher. But even more impressively, Hellickson’s 189 innings ranked him 27th in the American League in 2011. In an era where rookie pitchers are put on strict pitch and inning counts, the ability to go out every fifth day for an entire season is one that cannot be overlooked. As a rookie, Hellickson threw more innings than well-known pitchers like Brandon Morrow, Rick Porcello and John Lackey. In addition to his innings, Hellickson led rookie pitchers in ERA by almost a run. But not only did his 2.95 ERA lead rookies, it also ranked in the top ten of the whole AL, coming in at eighth.
It should also be noted that as the season went on and the postseason race got tighter, Hellickson stepped his game up. At the end of April, Hellickson had an ERA of 4.31. In the remaining five months of the season, he would post an ERA above 3.10 only once, in June. After the All-Star break, Hellickson compiled an ERA of 2.65. Each and every one of those dominant starts in the second half was critical to the Rays’ season, as they managed to just barely oust the Red Sox on the last game of the season. Toss in the fact that Hellickson led all rookie pitchers in WPA, Quality Starts and QS% and you have a player who should run away with this award easily.
People always debate whether or not team success should factor into awards. For example, should the MVP award go to the best player? Or does it belong to the best player whose team made the postseason? The answer to this question does not matter for Rookie of the Year. Jeremy Hellickson was the runaway best rookie in the American League in 2011, and his team rode his arm down the stretch to make the playoffs over an infinitely more-hyped Boston Red Sox team. Jeremy Hellickson was the 2011 Rookie of the Year, and it wouldn’t surprise me if his name comes up in other award discussions down the road. He was phenomenal this season.
Sources:
2011 Batting Stats – ESPN
2011 Pitching Stats – ESPN
2011 Batting Stats – FanGraphs
2011 Pitching Stats – FanGraphs