Now that LSU has beaten Arkansas, the list of teams with a chance to play in the 2012 BCS National Championship Game is down to four. The LSU victory also eliminated Georgia, as no more than two teams from the same conference can qualify for a BCS bowl game. The remaining four teams are ranked in order, from “easiest” to “most difficult” path, with a review of what they need to do to play in New Orleans on January 9, 2012.
1. LSU. A victory over Georgia in the SEC Championship Game, December 3rd, would cap off a perfect 13-0 season for the Tigers. LSU would then be the third consecutive SEC Conference Champion to play in the BCS Championship Game (Alabama 2010, Auburn 2011). If LSU loses to Georgia, they will still play in New Orleans, but no longer as the conference champion. The only remaining question is who will the LSU Tigers play against.
2. The Alabama Crimson Tide regular season is over, after beating Auburn 42-14 on Saturday. With an 11-1 record there is nothing else Alabama can do on the field. All that remains is for the human and computer elements of the BCS ranking system to place the Crimson Tide into the Final Top Two on December 4th. Alabama has wins over three current Top 25 teams; Arkansas, Penn State, and Auburn; while their only loss was 9-6 in overtime to #1 LSU.
3. Oklahoma State. The Cowboys must win one more game on December 3rd, “Bedlam” vs Oklahoma. With a victory over the Sooners, Oklahoma State (like Alabama) would finish with an 11-1 record. The Cowboys would have beaten four current Top 25 teams; Oklahoma, Kansas State, Baylor, and Texas; with their only loss being in double overtime to Iowa State. Like the Crimson Tide, the Cowboys need to finish in the Final Top Two of the BCS Rankings on December 4th. It may come down to whether or not the human voters want a rematch in the BCS Championship Game, as LSU and Alabama have already played.
4. The Houston Cougars must win the Conference-USA Championship Game on December 3rd, against Southern Miss, to match LSU with a perfect 13-0 record. Houston’s fate would also depend on the final BCS Rankings. Would 13 wins be enough to move ahead of two teams with 11 wins? If the voters do not want a rematch, Houston ranks ahead of Oklahoma State in four commonly cited statistical categories:
Passing Yards; Houston ranks #1 in the FBS, Oklahoma State #2
Rushing Yards; Houston #55, Oklahoma State #57
Points Scored; Houston #1, Oklahoma State #2
Points Allowed; Houston #28, Oklahoma State #66.
Prediction
Houston will finish 13-0, as the Conference-USA Champion. Oklahoma State will lose to Oklahoma and be eliminated from consideration. The matchup I expect to see in New Orleans is:
LSU Tigers vs Alabama Crimson Tide
Ugh! I’d rather see Houston take the field and get blown out. Plus, you never know what would happen. Remember Boise State vs Oklahoma in the 2007 Fiesta Bowl? I do.
source: espn.com